Bitcoin fell to $67,960 on Saturday morning, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and down sharply from last week’s high. The move fits what has become a recurring pattern in recent months, with weekend sales driving prices toward the lower end of the range heading into Saturday.
The majors were once again hit hardest. Ether fell 4.4% to $1,974, solana fell 4% to $84.31, dogecoin lost 2.9% to $0.09 and BNB slipped 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.
The weekly picture, however, tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% over seven days. Ether gained 2.6%. BNB added 2.1%. The midweek rally absorbed the shock of the war and more, although Friday’s pullback dulled the shine.
At the same time, the dollar posted its biggest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets price in higher energy costs, higher inflation and a Fed that has even less room to cut rates. This represents a direct obstacle for bitcoin and all other assets denominated against the dollar.
“As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors quickly turned to the safety of the U.S. dollar, which strengthened as markets began to price in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, potentially delaying rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,” Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, said in an email to CoinDesk.
On-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Data from Glassnode shows that 43% of the total Bitcoin market supply is now in deficit. This is a significant overhang.
As bitcoin recovers, these underwater holders are incentivized to sell during any rally to break even, creating persistent upside resistance. This is one of the reasons why the push towards $74,000 on Thursday failed to hold. Every bounce to higher prices is met with supply from people waiting months to get out.
One positive came from stablecoin flows. Messari saw a 415% increase in stablecoin net inflows to $1.7 billion during the week, with daily transfers up almost 10%. This is potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, and it suggests that retail is not entirely absent despite the sense of fear. The question is whether this capital turns into bitcoin or waits for lower prices.
The war continues to set the tempo. The US-Iran conflict showed no signs of resolution this week. Oil remains high. The Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. And the macroeconomic backdrop of a strong dollar, persistent inflation and delayed rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in the headlines, hitting $74,000 midweek, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another round of the range.
