The resumption of the oil war has just encountered its first real obstacle.
Tokenized crude futures on Hyperliquid’s CL-USDC contract fell sharply from a high of $118 to $102.83 on Monday after the Financial Times reported that G7 finance ministers would discuss a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves through the International Energy Agency.
Bitcoin rose above $67,300, reversing a trend below $66,900 from the start of the day.
Three G7 countries, including the United States, have expressed support for the plan. Ministers and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol are expected to meet to discuss the impact of the war in Iran on energy markets.
The reversal was rapid. CL-USDC surged more than 25% earlier Monday as the conflict expanded over the weekend, with Iran appointing a new supreme leader, intensifying Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian missiles hitting Saudi Arabia.
Iraqi oil production has fallen by around 60% and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed. The contract hit $118 before G7 headlines took it back to $102, still up 7.2% on the day but well below the highs.
Open interest on the contract stands at $181.9 million, including $823 million in 24-hour volume, reflecting the huge demand for oil exposure on crypto-native venues where traders can react to weekend headlines that traditional commodity markets cannot price in until Monday’s open.
The release of G7 reserves, if it comes to fruition, would constitute the most significant coordinated intervention in oil markets since the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022. Whether it will be enough to compensate for the supply disruption depends on the scale of the release and how long the Strait of Hormuz will effectively remain closed.
