By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remained resilient on Monday as a rise in oil prices above $100 shook Asian markets and triggered a decline in U.S. stock futures. The crypto calm could be shattered if bitcoin breaks out of the $60,000-$75,000 range, data on the positions of major market players suggests.
However, it’s solidly in that range at the moment. The leading cryptocurrency by market value has risen more than 3% since early Asian hours to trade around $68,000. The rally follows a back-and-forth week that saw the price climb to nearly $74,000 only to fall back to $67,000 over the weekend. CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) saw similar increases.
This resilience to the Middle East war and risk aversion of global stocks likely stems from the prior outperformance of U.S. stocks and the oversold status of the cryptocurrency. Nothing reflects the calm in crypto better than BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, which remains stable around 60%. Wall Street’s volatility indexes, the Stock VIX, the Oil VIX, and the Gold VIX, all hit multi-week highs, indicating panic in traditional markets.
Bitcoin market makers – those entities responsible for creating order book liquidity and ensuring smooth trading – are “short gamma” at $60,000 and $75,000. This means that if the market exceeds these levels, they could trade in the direction of the price movement to rebalance their net exposure to neutral. In other words, they can sell BTC when its price falls and buy when it rises, thereby increasing volatility.
“If we look at the Deribit GEX (gamma exposure chart), we see that dealers are running out of gamma at the $60,000 level and at the $75,000 levels…basically the ceiling and floor of the box. If the markets are actually trading beyond the box, negative gamma will make things worse from a dealer rebalancing perspective,” said Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s director of derivatives, in an email.
He added that traders are looking at the same levels and have hedged their own exposure at the ceiling and floor. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- March 9: Solstice and Kamino announce a new product or feature.
- Macro
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 9: Sharplink (SBET), pre-market, $0.31
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Convex Finance votes on Curve Ownership DAO Vote ID: 1358, which would onboard GHO as a Pegkeeper with a debt cap of 3 million crvUSD. Voting closes on March 9.
- Lido DAO votes to make the Delegate Incentive Program (DIP 2.0) a permanent governance mechanism. Voting closes on March 9.
- Lido DAO votes to authorize a one-time Treasury DAO allocation of $5 million in the upcoming Lido Earn ETH and USD vaults. Voting closes on March 9.
- Lido DAO is voting on whether Stakin (recently acquired by The Tie) should continue to operate as node operator and whether it should approve updating Stakin’s chain name and reward address. Voting closes on March 9.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 9: Nexira (NEXI) token generation event occurs, token will be listed on KuCoin.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $67,649.34 (24 hours: -0.36%)
- ETH is up 1.89% at $1,995.45 (24 hours: +1.12%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.04% at 1,943.48 (24h: +0.12%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate is down 9 basis points to 2.64%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0025% (-5.8613% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.30% at 99.2812
- Gold futures are down 0.70% at $5,110.00
- Silver futures are up 0.21% at $84.00
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 5.20% at 52,728.72
- Hang Seng closed 1.35% lower at 25,408.46
- The FTSE 100 is down 1.22% at 10,159.26
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.70% at 5,622.84
- DJIA closed Friday down 0.95% at 47,501.55
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.33% at 6,740.02
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,387.68
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1.57% at 33,083.70
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 4 basis points to 4.18%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.90% at 6,682.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.96% at 24,434.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.04% at 47,024.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.04% (0.62%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02951 (0.51%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,005 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.61
- Total fees: 1.96 BTC / $131,828
- CME Futures Open Interest: 100,675 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 13.3 oz.
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.56%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily fluctuations of Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, in candlestick form.
- The index is hovering near the upper end of its recent range.
- A potential breakout would lead to higher volatility and risk aversion, leading to losses in Bitcoin.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $197.22 (-4.13%), -0.84% at $195.57 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.56 (-9.57%), -0.17% at $20.52
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.01 (-8.67%), -0.12% at $8.00
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.16 (-9.20%), -1.38% at $13.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.86 (-7.13%), -0.54% at $14.78
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.21 (-7.44%), -0.43% at $9.17
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.90 (-2.50%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $36.07 (-8.10%), -0.80% at $35.78
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.91 (-3.62%), +1.24% to $103.17
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $34.96 (-0.17%), -1.34% at $34.49
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.53 (-4.49%), +0.25% at $133.86
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.70 (-5.95%), -0.23% at $8.68
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.36 (-7.19%), +2.45% to $7.54
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.90 (-6.44%), +4.44% at $0.94
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (+0.88%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: -$348.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.35 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$82.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.66 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.64 million
Source: Farside Investors
