Major tokens fell on Tuesday as optimism for the ceasefire trickled into risk-off markets.
Ether reclaimed $2,029, up 2.6% in the past 24 hours and back above the $2,000 level that served as a psychological pivot for weeks. Solana led the rally 2.9% to $85.67. BNB added 2.6% to $639. XRP gained 1.7% to $1.37. Dogecoin trails by just 1% and remains down 1.4% for the week, continuing to underperform the broader market with each rebound.
The catalyst was U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement to reporters Monday evening that the Iranian conflict would be resolved “very soon” and that U.S. military goals were being “pretty well achieved.” Asian stocks jumped 2% after Monday’s 3.7% fall. Technology stocks in the MSCI Asia-Pacific index jumped 3.5%. Oil has fallen since Monday’s peak above $100.
Nansen analysts said in an email that the crypto had “already absorbed the negatives and priced them in,” arguing that the market was reacting to headlines rather than a broader macroeconomic deterioration.
Data on institutional flows support this reading. CoinShares reported $619 million in crypto fund inflows for the week ending Friday, with $521 million going to Bitcoin products and total assets under management reaching $108.3 billion.
This capital arrived during a week in which the S&P lost $1 trillion in a single session and the economy shed 92,000 jobs. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital even as prices weaken, suggesting that institutional allocators are treating this as a tactical entry rather than a capitulation,” Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement, said in an email to CoinDesk.
Ethereum’s position above $2,000 is one to watch this week. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been fighting to maintain this level since late February, and FxPro analysts identified $2,500 and the 200-week moving average as the area that would confirm a true recovery rather than a series of dead cat bounces. It’s in the gap between $2,000 and $2,500 that the narrative shifts from “surviving the downside” to “starting a new trend.”
For Solana, the recovery was structurally weaker. SOL remains down about 55% from its cycle highs and has underperformed ether in every major rally since the October crash.
The memecoin economy that fueled Solana’s 2024 rally has evaporated, and without this speculative driver, the token trades more on macroeconomic sentiment than ecosystem activity.
XRP has been the most range-bound of the majors, hovering between $1.30 and $1.45 for most of March. ETF inflows have been positive and the legal clarity of Ripple’s settlement should be a tailwind, but the token has failed to dissociate itself from the broader market direction.
The Fed meeting on March 17-18 promises to be the next real test.
Global Settlement’s Kirkley noted that the 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 climbed to 0.78, one of the highest readings since mid-2022. When bitcoin trades in lockstep with stocks, altcoins amplify every move in either direction.
A hawkish dot chart or any indication that rate hikes are back on the table would hit the high-beta end of crypto the hardest.
