Middle East on brink as cycle of retaliation intensifies

The photograph shows a damaged building following a drone strike in Manama’s Seef district. Photo: AFP

TEHRAN/DUBAI:

The war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli alliance has continued with renewed intensity and growing threats, leaving the Middle East on edge as missile and drone strikes hit targets across the region, while Iran asserted that Tehran, not Washington, would determine the end of the war.

Iranian leaders have issued stern warnings, insisting that no aggression would go unanswered and promising retaliation in line with the “eye for an eye” principle. In a sharp rebuttal to US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the war was almost over, they said Iran was not “seeking a ceasefire”.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told X that Iran would respond quickly and proportionately to any hostile actions, stressing that attacks on its infrastructure would trigger immediate retaliation.

“Whatever the enemy does, we will undoubtedly respond with proportionate and immediate retaliation,” Ghalibaf said, adding that Tehran would break the cycle of repeated wars, ceasefires and negotiations imposed by its adversaries.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani faced threats directly from Trump, who warned that cutting off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would prompt the United States to respond “twenty times harder” and destroy targets critical to Iran’s survival.

Trump said on Truth Social that the United States had no reports that Iran had mined the Strait of Hormuz, adding that if mines were placed, “we want them removed immediately!” If, he warned, “they are not withdrawn immediately, the military consequences for Iran will be on a level never seen before.”

Larijani dismissed the US president’s warnings as mere “threats on paper”, saying Iran had historically faced far greater pressure and warning Trump to “watch out for yourself, lest you be eliminated”.

President Masoud Pezeshkian strengthened the nation’s resilience in an article on X, highlighting Iran’s 6,000 years of civilization. “Throughout the trials of history, no power has ever succeeded in erasing this legendary name,” he wrote. “The aggressors have come and gone; Iran has endured.”

Meanwhile, Iranian military media announced a recalibration of the country’s ballistic strategy in response to “indiscriminate US attacks on urban centers and civilian infrastructure” and disruption of regional air defenses.

The new approach includes continuous 24-hour strikes, deploying missiles with warheads exceeding a ton, concentrating firepower, expanding the geographic reach of attacks and aiming to inflict damage that would take years to repair.

In another sign of strengthening internal security measures, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry reported the arrest of a foreign national accused of spying for the United States and Israel, as well as 30 spies, internal mercenaries and operational operatives linked to the same countries and their proxies.

The US military has meanwhile promised an escalation on its part. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced the “most intense day of strikes” yet, with maximum deployment of fighters and bombers.

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iranian forces were not proving more resilient than expected, despite increasing casualties and continued resistance. Washington’s strategy has focused on degrading Iran’s weapons stockpiles, missile launchers and naval capabilities, with Trump reiterating that the length of the war would be within his control.

In an article on In response, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said: “Thank you to CENTCOM for admitting that you are using our neighbors’ territory to deploy HIMARS systems against our people, apparently including a desalination plant. No one should complain if our powerful missiles destroy these systems wherever they are in retaliation. »

Iran reports at least 1,332 civilian deaths, including the tragic loss of 175 schoolgirls in Minab, as well as thousands injured. Iraq suffered 15 deaths, the United Arab Emirates four, Saudi Arabia two, Bahrain two, Kuwait two and Oman one. Israel reported 11 deaths, alongside seven American service members.

Oil markets reacted strongly to the conflict. North Sea Brent crude fell almost 10% to $89.44 a barrel, recovering from peaks above $120. Gas prices in Europe fell, while stock markets in Paris, London, Frankfurt and across Asia recovered, reflecting investors’ temporary optimism.

Diplomatic efforts emerged amid the hostilities. Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi confirmed contacts with China, Russia and France regarding possible discussions on a ceasefire, but Araqchi told PBS that talks were unlikely, citing attacks despite previous rounds of negotiations.

Turkey also became a focal point after NATO intercepted two missiles entering Turkish airspace. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called President Pezeshkian to emphasize that the airspace violations were unjustified, while Iran expressed its willingness to conduct a joint investigation into the incidents.

The scope of the conflict has expanded to civilian and industrial targets across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates reported drone and missile attacks on its Ruwais industrial complex and consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan, causing fires and damage but causing no casualties.

The refinery has since been closed as a precaution. Iranian strikes also hit Bahrain’s capital Manama, killing one person and injuring others in a residential building, while other Iranian drone attacks targeted opposition groups northeast of Erbil in Iraq.

British forces have launched air sorties to protect the UAE, intercepting drones over Jordan and Bahrain and deploying helicopters and warships to boost regional security.

Iran has accused Israel of killing four of its diplomats in a weekend strike on a Beirut hotel, calling the attack deliberate and calling on the UN to take note. Israel claimed responsibility, saying the strike targeted commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force.

So far, the UAE has reported detecting 253 ballistic missiles, 1,440 drones and destroying several cruise missiles, while Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have recorded dozens of incoming missiles and drones.

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