Circle (CRCL) has recently outperformed other crypto-related stocks, a move that investment bank William Blair said reflects more than just changing macroeconomic conditions.
“It is tempting to attribute the recent strength to rising oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
“We believe, however, that there is more at stake, including the resilience of USDC’s market cap despite a crypto pullback and the growing appreciation of Circle’s business model and leadership in stablecoin infrastructure,” the analysts said.
The bank reiterated its outperform rating on the stock, arguing that the rally, which sent shares up about 126% from February’s low, reflects improving sentiment toward stable infrastructure rather than short-term market noise.
Shares were up 1.2% at press time, trading around $114.20.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks have largely followed, and often amplified, the recent downturn in digital assets, with shares of exchanges, miners and crypto-treasury companies falling as Bitcoin retreated from its late 2025 highs.
Stocks such as Coinbase (COIN) and other companies with exposure to cryptocurrencies have generally moved in tandem with digital asset prices, reflecting the sector’s close connection to trading volumes and token valuations, and in some cases, declined even more sharply than the underlying assets during market stress.
Japanese bank Mizuho said in a report last week that part of Circle’s rise could be linked to the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rising crude prices could fuel further inflation concerns, the bank said, which could dampen expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Analysts at William Blair said investors had been too pessimistic on Circle amid regulatory uncertainty and expectations of falling interest rates. Today, the company sees signs that the market is starting to recognize the company’s core thesis: stablecoins could become a key part of the global payments infrastructure.
Analysts say USDC could become one of the few dominant standards in cross-border commerce, citing its liquidity, first-mover advantage and integration into crypto networks.
The report also points to Circle’s growing payments activity and infrastructure, including its stablecoin payments network, as evidence that the stablecoin-based settlement market is starting to take shape.
While other companies and tech platforms have launched their own stablecoins, the report states that Circle’s minting, cross-chain transfer, and payment orchestration infrastructure could provide a sustainable competitive advantage as the sector grows.
Learn more: How the Iran War and Trader Positioning Could Be Behind Circle’s Stock Rise
