Asset manager Ark Invest says quantum computing is a long-term consideration for Bitcoin security but not an imminent threat.
In a co-authored report Wednesday with Unchained, the investment manager said today’s quantum computers fall far short of the capabilities needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, which relies on elliptic curve encryption to secure wallets.
“Today’s quantum systems do not have the capabilities necessary to compromise Bitcoin,” wrote authors Dhruv Bansal, co-founder and CSO at Unchained; Tom Honzik, director of custody research at Unchained; and David Puell, trading research analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at Ark Invest.
Even if quantum systems eventually reach this level, the risks will likely emerge gradually and at high cost to attackers, the report says.
One of the main reasons why Bitcoin will not face an immediate threat is that a major breakthrough in quantum computing would likely first disrupt broader internet security, leading to coordinated responses from governments, technology companies and financial institutions before reaching Bitcoin.
The report comes as long-term investors grapple with the possibility that advances in quantum computing could one day break the cryptography that underpins bitcoin, fueling speculation about a potential security crisis.
Earlier this year, Christopher Wood, a prominent portfolio strategist at Jefferies, said investors should ditch 10% of their bitcoin allocation and add gold instead, due to a quantum threat. The move shook investors and scared the digital asset market.
35% of the offer at risk
Although researchers generally agree that such capabilities remain distant, the prospect that powerful quantum machines could eventually decipher private keys or older wallet formats has raised concerns among investors about the long-term risks for bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
Ark’s report estimates that about 35% of Bitcoin’s supply is in address types theoretically exposed to future quantum attacks, including about 1.7 million BTC that would be lost and about 5.2 million BTC that could be migrated to more secure wallets.
One of these wallets, worth around 1 million BTC, belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the Bitcoin network.
However, rather than a sudden “Q-day”, Ark Invest sees these progressions taking place in several different stages over many years. Some investors fear the first attack could occur before 2030, while others suggest it could happen “decades from now,” the report notes.
The report claims that in either case, it will likely give the Bitcoin community time to upgrade the network with quantum-resistant cryptography and encourage users to move coins to more secure address formats.
“The good news is that we already know how to protect against quantum attacks,” the report says.
“The majority of Bitcoin’s supply is held in resilient quantum addresses, and the remainder is held in vulnerable quantum addresses that are not expected to be at risk until Stage 3 of our timeline, when there is a CRQC capable of cracking a 256-bit ECC key.”
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $70,000 at press time.
Read more: Grayscale sees regulation, not quantum fears, shaping crypto markets in 2026
