The crypto market is on the cusp of a major breakthrough under the name Bitcoin. trading at $73,000 and ether (ETH) at $2,250, its highest level since February 4.
If bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, manages to break above $74,000 with convincing volume, it will likely return to $80,000, which was a support level in November before a possible breakdown in January.
On the other hand, a rejection would result in a return to a trading range between $62,000 and $72,000, which has persisted for over a month.
But the main story on Monday isn’t about the crypto majors, it’s the altcoin and memecoin market in particular.
PEPE is up around 20% in the last 24 hours, while BONK and PENGU are also up double digits. However, “overbought” conditions on the average Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a pullback could be in store before any breakout.
Oil remains inflated above $106 a barrel, although the United States is reportedly considering forming a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route.
U.S. stock futures are up about 0.5% and crypto-related companies are gaining in pre-market trading. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) was recently up 3% and Circle Internet (CRCL) added 5%. Cash company Bitcoin Strategy (MSTR) gained 4%.
Precious metals fell and the dollar weakened, reflecting risk appetite.
Positioning of derivative products
- Sector-wide futures open interest rose more than 8% to $112.34 billion in 24 hours, a sign of increased risk-taking in the market.
- Open Interest (OI) in Ether (ETH) and futures rose 16% and 19%, respectively, leading growth among major cryptocurrencies. This indicates a strong investor preference for smart contract tokens. Bitcoin OI increased by over 5%.
- In the case of ether, the OI in terms of coins climbed to 14.34 million ETH, the highest since September 2025.
- There are signs of speculation on non-serious tokens such as : Cryptocurrency-related open interest jumped over 11%.
- OI growth in most major tokens is accompanied by positive perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas. This combination indicates a growing demand for bullish leveraged plays.
- On Deribit, however, puts linked to bitcoin and ether continue to trade at higher prices than calls across all time frames. This is a sign of continued demand for downside hedging despite the market rebound. Overhead call writing could be another reason for the persistent put premium.
- In the case of XRP, the $1.40 call and put options are the most popular, with a cumulative notional open interest of $14 million. This represents almost 25% of the total open interest in XRP options on the exchange.
Symbolic discussion
- The altcoin market is in a jubilant mood with the “altcoin season” index reaching 48/100, the highest in just over two months.
- The total crypto market capitalization excluding bitcoin reached $1.1 trillion on Monday, up about $40 billion in the last 24 hours and $10 billion since midnight UTC, according to TradingView.
- The best performing CoinDesk benchmark over the past 24 hours has been the Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), which is comprised of ETH, SOL, ADA, and SUI among layer 1 networks. SCPXC is up 6.3%, followed closely by the Memecoin Index (CDMEME), which is up 5.2%.
- The AI-focused token bittensor (TAO) has lost 3.7% since midnight. This is a consolidation movement rather than a decline after an increase of more than 69% between March 8 and 15.
- It appears that part of these profits are being donated to another AI project, which benefited from a 60% increase in daily trading volume to $195 million, helping the token rise by 11%.
