By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
While Bitcoin The rise in prices since the start of the Iranian conflict more than two weeks ago is impressive, the performance of Hyperliquid is even more remarkable.
Users of the decentralized perpetual exchange have traded millions of commodity futures contracts, particularly those related to oil, highlighting the usefulness of blockchain-based markets for price discovery when traditional markets are closed.
This trend is expected to continue as industry experts become increasingly bullish on commodities, particularly energy.
“Energy contracts – particularly refined products such as fuel oil and gasoline – exhibit higher expected Sharpe ratios, tighter physical markets and favorable duration structures,” Prometheus Research said.
The Iran conflict has already generated gains for commodity ETFs, and Mining.com predicts a lasting impact on key metals including nickel and other critical minerals.
All of this suggests that on-chain commodity markets could siphon capital away from bitcoin and various parts of the crypto market. Booming AI stocks would have done this in 2024-2025, limiting the largest cryptocurrency’s gains.
Another tail risk: Economists predict higher inflation due to rising oil prices, which could prompt central banks to cautiously proceed with interest rate cuts, further weighing on risky assets. Remember, the Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision tomorrow.
So even though BTC looks buoyant, quick gains might not be easy. Prices briefly rose above $75,000 earlier Tuesday due to short-selling coverage in the futures and options markets.
“When you combine this heavily covered options market with the consistently negative perpetual funding rates we have seen over the past two weeks, it became clear that the market was highly skewed – covered, short and underheld,” Monarq Asset Management told CoinDesk.
The breakthrough, however, was short-lived. Prices fell back below $74,000, dragging down the CoinDesk 20 Index and major tokens such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL). Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell, signaling renewed risk aversion in traditional markets. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- March 17: Lava Network (LAVA) will expand with 17 new chain integrations and nine new blockchain ecosystems.
- Macro
- March 17, 10 a.m.: MoM of pending U.S. home sales for February (previous -0.8%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 17: CEA Industries (BNC), post-market, $0.69
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- March 17: Mantle (MNT) will host State of Mind Ep. 07, discussing CeDeFi milestones and DeFi strategies.
- March 17: OKX will host an X Spaces Agent States session with representatives from Uniswap, Dune, and Alchemy.
- Decentraland DAO votes to allow registered users to customize the color of their avatar’s name tag and add a more accessible volume slider to the UI sidebar. Voting closes on March 16 and 17.
- Convex Finance votes on the Curve and Frax gauge weighting allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlCVX’s voting power over hundreds of liquidity pools. It also votes on the weight allocations of the FXN gauges for the same period. Voting closes on March 17.
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to finalize its election of 2026-2027 multi-Sig signatories, preserving the threshold of 5 out of 9 and setting quarterly remuneration for signatories. Voting closes on March 17.
- Aavegotchi DAO is holding the third ballot to elect seven of the remaining 10 candidates as multi-Sig signatories, completing the list of nine signatories for the DAO Foundation portfolio. Voting closes on March 17.
- Aura Finance votes on Balancer gauge weight allocations for the week of March 12, directing vlAURA’s voting power in the Balancer pools on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Gnosis, Base, and Avalanche. Voting closes on March 17.
- ShapeShift DAO votes on creating and funding a new international UX workflow for six months to maintain professional multilingual translations of the ShapeShift app and website. Voting closes on March 17.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.28% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $73,668.91 (24 hours: +0.22%)
- ETH is down 1.25% at $2,307.46 (24 hours: +1.76%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.96% at 2,147.86 (24 hours: +0.75%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 7 Basis Points to 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0054% (-5.9042% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.09% at 99.80
- Gold futures are up 0.03% at $5,003.80
- Silver futures are down 0.61% at $80.19
- The Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,700.39
- Hang Seng closed 0.13% higher at 25,868.54
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.54% at 10,373.64
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.45% at 5,764.94
- DJIA closed Monday up 0.83% at 46,946.41
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.01% at 6,699.38
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.22% at 22,374.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.03% at 32,876.65
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% at 3,607.58
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 7 basis points at 4.22%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.61% at 6,745.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.66% at 24,839.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.59% at 47,261.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.06% (-0.17%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0313 (-0.39%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 935 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.42
- Total fees: 2.54 BTC / $187,439
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,130 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 14.8 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.93%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily fluctuations of the ether-bitcoin ratio in candlestick form since November.
- The ratio jumped 5% on Monday, breaking a prolonged trend of volatile price action.
- The so-called bullish breakout suggests potential for continued outperformance of ether in the future.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $203.32 (+3.98%), +0.33% to $204.00 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $125.83 (+9.06%), +0.79% to $126.82
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.10 (+3.36%), unchanged
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.23 (–0.97%), +0.11% to $9.24
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $14.40 (+2.56%), +0.21% to $14.43
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (+2.91%), –0.41% at $16.90
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.02 (+2.66%), +0.50% to $10.07
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.32 (+3.90%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.45 (+5.68%), unchanged
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.62 (+8.19%), –1.29% at $39.11
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $147.52 (+5.62%), –0.83% at $146.3
- Strive (ASST): closed at $10.86 (+13.96%), unchanged
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $8.20 (+8.90%), +0.49% to $8.24
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.08 (–2.70%), +4.63% at $1.13
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.25 (+5.93%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $199.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $35.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.74 million
Source: Farside Investors
