Wall Street investment bank Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin. and ether (ETH), citing slowing legislative momentum in the United States, slower network activity, and reduced expectations for ETF inflows.
Citi now forecasts bitcoin will hit $112,000 and ether $3,175 over the next year, down sharply from previous forecasts of $143,000 and $4,304.
The revised targets still suggest substantial upside potential. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at press time. Ether was at $2,330.
The bank said capital inflows remained the main driver of upside, although it revised down its 12-month demand assumptions, although recent ETF demand has recovered slightly despite geopolitical uncertainty.
“ETF request where we reduce the assumption to $10 billion and $2.5 billion (ETH) remains the largest positive factor,” analyst Alex Saunders said in Monday’s report.
Crypto markets struggled to regain momentum after bitcoin hit record highs in October, with prices tumbling due to low risk appetite and fading enthusiasm following the halving. BTC has been trading below key technical levels, while ether is still lagging, weighed down by weak on-chain activity. Despite the moderate price action, ETF inflows have remained resilient, helping to stabilize the market even as macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside.
According to Saunders, the outlook depends heavily on U.S. regulations. The analyst said the window for passing digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds falling to around 60%. Although broader global policy remains supportive, he argued that U.S. legislation would be a more powerful catalyst for institutional flows than incremental regulation.
The CLARITY Act, a sweeping U.S. crypto market structure bill, has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing proposals, leaving its path forward uncertain.
The legislation is seen as key because it would establish clear rules on how digital assets are classified and which agencies oversee them, resolving a long-running battle between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (CFTC) which has created legal ambiguity for investors and businesses.
By defining categories of tokens and establishing registration frameworks for exchanges, the bill aims to reduce regulatory risk and provide the certainty many institutional investors need before allocating more capital to crypto markets.
The analyst also flagged weakening crypto market momentum since bitcoin’s October peak, citing futures selloffs, positioning fatigue and prices below key technical levels. Bitcoin could continue to vary in trading, with around $70,000 seen as an important psychological level tied to pre-election prices.
In the banking context, the bullish hypothesis depends on stronger adoption by end investors, particularly via ETFs, with a target of $165,000 for bitcoin and $4,488 for ether. The bear case reflects macro-recessionary conditions, with targets of $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook is more uncertain, the report said, given its sensitivity to onchain activity, which has been low recently. Nonetheless, there are potential benefits from stablecoin growth, tokenization trends, and possible regulatory focus on DeFi, which could increase usage and demand.
Learn more: Bitcoin Outperforms Gold, Stocks Amid Global Turmoil As ETFs, Strategy Piles On
