Bitcoin heads into the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with strong momentum, trading above $74,000 after eight straight daily gains. However, data compiled by Bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests that this strength could mask a recurring pattern, with FOMC meetings having historically acted as short-term bearish catalysts for BTC.
In 2025, Bitcoin posted negative returns within 48 hours of seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even in May, when BTC rebounded sharply, the broader trend points to continued weakness after the meeting, regardless of whether the Fed held rates or changed its policy direction. This reinforces the idea that the event itself, rather than its outcome, is the cause of volatility.
The upcoming decision is unlikely to hold any surprises. The markets are pricing in a virtual certainty, around 99%, that the Federal Reserve will keep its rates stable in a range of 350 to 375 basis points. Meanwhile, the futures market is only pricing in one 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reinforcing a longer-term bullish backdrop. Even with a new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, set to take over in June.
Macroeconomic risks further complicate the situation. Escalating conflict in the Middle East and oil prices around $100 a barrel are expected to put upward pressure on CPI inflation numbers, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to ease policy on top of a weakened jobs market.
As Bitcoin enters the meeting in a dynamic state, the risk shifts towards a classic sell-the-information reaction.
