Bitcoin held on to gains Monday after an early rise above $70,000, but the fate of the rebound now depends on what happens between the United States and Iran.
The move follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause in strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing “productive” diplomatic negotiations.
Iranian officials denied the existence of negotiations, but markets largely ignored it, with risk assets remaining firm throughout the session.
Bitcoin hovered just below $71,000 later in the session, up 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins outperformed, with ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and each earning around 5%.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks have also rebounded, led by Bitcoin miners, whose trading has increasingly aligned itself with AI infrastructure. Hut 8 (HUT) jumped over 11%, while Bitfarms (BITF), Cipher Mining (CIFR), CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and TeraWulf (WULF) advanced 6-7%.
Traditional markets joined the upward trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing up about 1.2%.
Although the temporary pause has eased pressure on energy markets, traders should view the rebound in risk assets with caution.
“The macroeconomic ceiling has changed,” said Jasper de Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute. “The amount of space available depends on the next five days.”
If oil stabilizes and shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, he said, inflationary concerns could ease, allowing rate cut expectations to return and removing a major headwind for crypto.
In this scenario, bitcoin could make another move higher into the $74,000 to $76,000 range, the level that has capped rallies in recent weeks, according to de Maere.
A breakdown in negotiations or further disruption of energy supplies would have the opposite impact, he said. This would likely push oil higher again, heightening inflation risks and sending markets back into risk-averse mode, which could send Bitcoin back towards the mid-$60,000s.
