With just over a week left in March, Bitcoin is on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up about 2% for the month, holding above $68,000. However, a late pullback would see Bitcoin close six consecutive months in the red, which would match the longest negative streak on record, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains a key level to watch. This metric, which tracks Bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging its closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically provided important support during bear markets.
In the current cycle, 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above that level for nearly two months, suggesting continued strength at this key support. Notably, the 2022 bear market remains the only cycle in which bitcoin spent an extended period below the 200WMA, from June to December.
Beyond the USD price action, bitcoin is also starting to show relative strength against gold. It is on track to post its first positive monthly candle against gold in eight months, with the bitcoin/gold ratio currently around 16 ounces. Gold, meanwhile, is trading near $4,200 after recently falling as low as $4,000, a 5% drop on the day. Gold is now down more than 25% from its all-time high in January, erasing $7.5 trillion in market cap value.
Historically, each cycle has seen smaller declines in the bitcoin/gold ratio from its peak. During this cycle, bitcoin fell approximately 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These peak-to-trough cycles have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting that the current downturn may be over-denominated in this ratio.
If Bitcoin manages to maintain support above 200 WMA while regaining strength against gold, it would reinforce the idea that the broader uptrend remains intact.
