Monday’s ceasefire lasted about 18 hours.
Bitcoin climbed 3.1% to $70,352 on Tuesday morning, recovering from the weekend’s fall below $68,000, with ether (ETH), Solana SOL, dogecoin and xrp gaining between 2 and 4%.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia had agreed to give the U.S. military access to King Fahd Air Base, reversing its previous position that its bases could not be used to attack Iran. The United Arab Emirates has taken similar measures.
Direct participation by Gulf states in the war would transform the conflict from a U.S.-Israeli operation into a broader regional coalition, representing a significant escalation from what markets had priced.
The Iranian vice president ruled out any discussions with the United States, echoing the denial by the Fars news agency on Monday evening. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with only a small number of ships passing through.
Traditional markets reacted immediately. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%. European stocks were expected to fall 0.8% at the open. Brent crude jumped 4% to around $104. The dollar strengthened by 0.3%. Gold fell 1.5%, extending what is now its longest daily losing streak on record.
The collapse of gold continues to be the most disorienting signal in global markets. A safe haven asset experiencing record casualty streaks during an active and expanding war breaks all historical precedent.
The most likely explanation is forced selling by funds facing margin calls on other positions, with gold being the most liquid asset to sell. But whatever the cause, it makes Bitcoin’s relative stability even more remarkable. The token that is supposed to be volatile maintains a range while the one that is supposed to be stable is in free fall.
The five-day window granted by Trump to Iran expires on Saturday, but the entry of Saudi Arabia into the conflict completely changes the situation. A regional coalition fighting Iran is a different war than an air campaign between the United States and Israel, and it endangers oil infrastructure on both sides of the Gulf.
Bitcoin holds $70,000 on a Tuesday morning when everything else is going downhill. Whether it’s resilience or simply waiting for the market to react to the next headline, that’s the question the rest of the week will answer.
