Bitcoin recently found support for a key on-chain metric – the average realized price for a specific year – in this case, the 2023 cost base.
The average realized price in 2023 is currently around $63,700. During the local bottom in early February, when bitcoin fell about 50% from its all-time high in October, to around $60,000, the price effectively tested and held that level as support.
This behavior reflects the previous cycle. In early 2023, as the bull run began, Bitcoin experienced several small corrections and repeatedly used the price realized in 2023 as support. This can be observed in March, July, and September 2023, when prices consolidated in the $20,000 to $26,000 range.
Looking at more recent cohorts, the average price realized in 2026 started the year at almost $90,000 and has since declined to around $77,000. With bitcoin currently trading at just over $70,000, the average buyer in 2026 is underwater. It should be noted that the base cost of this cohort also fell below that of the 2024 cohort, at $81,500, and that of the 2025 cohort, at $96,400.
Zooming out further, the overall realized price, which represents the average base cost of all coins in circulation, is currently around $54,360. Historically, bitcoin has traded below this level in all major bear markets, including 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2022.
So far in this cycle, Bitcoin’s lowest price is around $60,000. If this level fails, it becomes the next key support to watch, with the price realized at $54,000 acting as a deeper all-time low.
