By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin Volatility indexes have been trading in a tight range lately, with volatility indexes surprisingly calm despite the Iran war, oil shocks and Fed rate hike expectations weighing on the market.
Taurus call this resilience. But if you zoom out and look at other markets, it may just be complacency – and it could lead to a brutal reality check.
Take oil, for example. WTI has surged 37% this month to $91.84, and some analysts believe a $200 price is not out of the question. Call options on oil are now three times more expensive than puts. This is a pretty clear sign of excessive bullish positioning. All this means more inflation and economic shocks to come.
In the U.S. Treasury market, the MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in the global financial backbone, jumped 33% to 98.00. Increased volatility in the world’s largest economy’s debt, which underpins global finance, typically leads to a global credit crunch.
Compare that with Bitcoin’s implied volatility index, BVIV, which actually fell 7% to 54%. Resilience or complacency? Some companies think it’s the latter.
“In particular, short-term implied volatilities have compressed to their lowest levels since February, signaling some degree of market complacency regarding this tail risk,” TDX Strategies said in a market note.
The company recommends “accumulating gamma,” essentially betting on large moves in certain altcoins, as a proxy hedge for your portfolio.
Currently, Bitcoin is down 2.4% on the day at $69,500. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) follow suit, while non-serious tokens like are hit harder, down almost 5%.
The context doesn’t help: Iran has just rejected the US peace plan, setting conditions including the closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, the lifting of all sanctions and the maintenance of its missile program without restrictions. The United States is unlikely to agree, leaving the situation in a stalemate and risky assets at risk.
The dollar index is climbing, Treasury yields are rising and U.S. stock index futures are in the red. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- Macro
- March 26, 8:30 a.m.: First U.S. jobless claims for the week ending March 21, est. 210,000 (previous 205,000)
- March 26, 4:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s “Thoughts on Financial Stability” speech at Yale
- March 26, 7:00 p.m.: Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson on “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Conference Series, Dallas.
- March 26, 7:10 p.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr’s speech on “the economy,” Washington, DC
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 26: Hyperion DeFi (HYPD), pre-market, -$4.62
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 26: Start of Katana Network (KAT) Era 1 for KAT Awards
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $69,946.60 (24 hours: -2.67%)
- ETH is down 4.04% at $2,079.75 (24 hours: -4.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.78% at 1,991.19 (24 hours: -3.91%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate unchanged at 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0023% (-2.5032% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.10% at 99.70
- Gold futures are down 2.91% at $4,417.60
- Silver futures are down 6.11% at $67.94
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.27% at 53,603.65
- Hang Seng closed 1.89% lower at 24,856.43
- The FTSE 100 is down 1.23% at 9,982.48
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.50% at 5,564.52
- DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.66% at 46,429.49
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,591.90
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.77% at 21,929.83
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.38% at 32,382.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.35% at 3,562.75
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 6 basis points to 4.33%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.83% at 6,585.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.96% at 24,135.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.76% at 46,355.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.98% (0.01%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0299 (-1.65%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 976 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.89
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $188,510
- Open Interest on CME Futures: 117,100 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 15.6 ounces.
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.64%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily price fluctuations (UTC) of XRP in candlestick format since November 2025.
- XRP price has fallen below a triangular consolidation pattern represented by the two converging trendlines.
- It’s a signal that bears have established the path of least resistance further down, opening the doors to deeper slides.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday at $181.10 (+0.03%), -2.07% at $177.36 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.33 (+0.14%), -1.73% at $20.96
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.28 (+0.36%), -2.42% at $8.08
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $15.16 (+5.79%), -2.51% at $14.78
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.05 (+1.19%), -2.87% at $16.56
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.96 (+3.97%), -2.01% at $9.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.29 (+1.25%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.30 (+3.68%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $103.86 (+2.66%), -2.52% at $101.24
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.43 (+0.16%), -1.63% at $36.82
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.13 (+2.11%), -2.03% at $136.31
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.85 (+9.26%), -1.84% at $10.65
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.28 (+1.53%), -3.98% at $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.19 (+7.21%), -1.68% at $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+0.00%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $7.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$8.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.69 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
