The FTX collapse may seem like a distant memory, when bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $15,500 in November 2022. The sentiment during this period was extreme fear, and the industry n Never thought she would recover.
But just over two years later, bitcoin is trading above $100,000 under the leadership of a new, presumably crypto-friendly, U.S. administration. Donald Trump is now officially the 47th president of the United States, but he has yet to announce any crypto policies.
One of the many discussions around bitcoin is the four-year cycle analysis, structured around its halving program, which reduces supply every four years. We tend to see similar cycles, with huge price appreciation in the year following the halving, while the current cycle continues to mirror the previous two cycles.
So far, bitcoin is up about 550% from the cycle lows during the FTX collapse (black line). The chart shows that at this point in the current cycle, between the 2015 and 2018 cycles, the price of Bitcoin (blue line) has also increased by a similar amount from the cycle low that occurred on January 14, 2015.
It is important to note that Glassnode data takes the day’s closing price at 00:00 UTC, which may differ from other trading platforms.
The green line shows that during the 2018 to 2022 cycle, at this point in the cycle, BTC was up around 1,300%, more than double the gain the token has seen so far.
If bitcoin continues to follow the cycle from 2015 to 2018, it would finish up about 1,100% from the cycle low at the end of the first quarter of 2025, which would put bitcoin at $186,000. The peak of the cycle would then occur around October of this year, at a level 11,000% higher, which would bring the cycle high to around $1.7 million.
There are many other ways to compare this situation with previous cycles, for example with US presidential administrations. According to an article published on X by Bitcoin Archive, bitcoin grew 20 times during Donald Trump’s first term as president. A return of just 10x would net bitcoin about $1 million from here.
