Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $66,609 on Wednesday, giving back Tuesday’s gains after Trump’s prime-time address to the nation promised to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks rather than offering markets a de-escalation.
All major tokens in the top 10 have been abandoned. Ether slipped 2.2% to $2,056, BNB fell 3.9% to $591, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.31 and Solana’s SOL led losses to 5.2%, extending its weekly decline to 13%.
The selloff reversed a strong global rally that had been building until Tuesday on Trump’s earlier comments that the war could end within weeks and that a deal with Tehran was not a prerequisite. Asian stocks jumped 4%. S&P 500 futures had surged. The mood was the most optimistic since the start of the conflict five weeks ago.
Then the speech took place. In nearly 20 minutes, Trump outlined no changes in Iran policy, provided no details on how operations would proceed and indicated no path to a cease-fire.
The Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that has been effectively closed since mid-March, would “naturally” reopen once hostilities subside, he said, without offering a timetable.
Brent crude jumped 5% to exceed $106 a barrel. Asian stocks fell 2.1%. U.S. and European stock futures fell more than 1.2%. The dollar has strengthened. Treasuries fell on inflation concerns.
The crypto-specific image is now familiar to the point of numbing. Bitcoin spent five weeks bouncing between around $60,000 and $73,000, selling off at each escalation headline, rallying at each de-escalation headline, and ending up roughly where it started.
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 8, deep in extreme fear territory, where it has remained stuck between 8 and 14 for the past month.
There is a seasonal argument for optimism. April has consistently been one of the strongest months for bitcoin, finishing in green 10 out of 15 years with an average gain of 20.9% compared to an average decline of 8.8% in down years. Bitcoin also rebounded firmly from its two-month uptrend support near $60,000 last week and is attempting to reclaim the 50-day moving average.
But seasonality does not preclude war. The pattern of the past five weeks – hope, headlines, reversal – shows no signs of breaking until the conflict itself does.
