US Inflation Data Takes Center Stage: Crypto Week Ahead

Inflation returns to center stage this week, with a new influx of data likely to shape expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin. BTC$68,962.67.

Thursday’s February U.S. PCE core reading and Friday’s March CPI reading will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, rate cuts seemed almost assured. That has changed. On Polymarket, the odds of no rate cut in 2026 have increased from around 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin “had already priced in a (US) recession” and had acted like a “canary in the coal mine,” falling short of signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates this view. The ISM manufacturing index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting that the US economy may be more resilient to rising oil prices than in previous cycles.

Following this release, the odds of a market recession this year fell from approximately 37% to 28%.

While bitcoin’s price is in the midst of a storm, Dragosch noted that bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Yet an unexpected escalation of the war in the Middle East could cause a storm whose prices have been priced.

What to watch

(All times ET)

• Cryptocurrency
  • April 6 at 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
  • April 8: The stable version of Stellar’s Yardstick protocol will be available.
  • April 9: The airfield flying school concludes and merges with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
  • April 9: Binance will migrate all DAI functionality to USDS.
• Macro
  • April 6, 9:00 a.m.: US ISM services PMI for March est. 55 (previous 56.1)
  • April 7, 7:15 a.m.: weekly change in ADP employment in the United States (est. 10,000)
  • April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. durable goods orders for February are 04% (previous 0%)
  • April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
  • April 8, 4:00 a.m.: Eurozone annual PPI for February east. -1.9% (previous -2.1%); MoM is. 0.5% (previous 0.7%)
  • April 8, 1:00 p.m.: publication of the FOMC minutes of the March 17-18 meeting.
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: US Core PCE Price Index MoM for February est. 0.4% (previous 0.4%);
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: US Personal Income MoM for February est. 0.3% (previous 0.4%); Personal expenses MoM is. 0.5% (previous 0.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: Fourth-quarter US GDP growth rate, QoQ (final), est. 0.7% (previous: 4.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: First jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 4, est. 200,000 (previous 202,000)
  • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: Chinese CPI year-on-year for March est. 1.2% (previous 1.3%); MoM (previous 1%)
  • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China PPi YoY for March est. 0.4% (previously -0.9%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: Unemployment rate in Canada for March (previous 6.7%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: US MoM CPI for March est. 0.9% (previous 0.3%); MoM base CPI is. 0.3% (previous 0.2%)
  • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: US 1-year CPI for March est. 3.4% (previous 2.4%); Estimated year-on-year core CPI at 2.7% (previously 2.5%)
  • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: American University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April Preliminary) est. 52.5 (previous 53.3)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Votes and calls on governance
  • April 7: Kamino and xStocks will host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
  • Aave DAO votes to adjust Oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest rate models on its V2 markets to support their continued depreciation. Voting closes on April 6.
  • Decentraland DAO votes to demand that the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs formally release a definition of success and contingency plan for 2030. The proposal currently has voter support. Voting closes on April 6.
  • Balancer DAO is voting on two related proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by stopping BAL issuance, shutting down veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and proposing a token buyback. Voting closes on April 7.
  • CoW DAO votes 85 to set its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and expires on April 7.
  • ShapeShift DAO votes to reduce DFC compensation, saving approximately $24,000/year at FOX. It clarifies roles and imposes annual renewals. Voting closes on April 8.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to modify its audit program with a flexible alignment framework and an AI security analysis pilot, and to transfer 6,000 unused ETH and stablecoins to the treasury management wallet to generate yield. Voting closes on April 9.
• Unlocks
  • April 6: Hyperliquide (HYPE) will release 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
  • April 8: Stable (STABLE) will release 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.
  • April 9: Aptos APTE$0.8520 to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event.

Conferences