By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
That’s a risk for markets again after a Reuters report suggested a ceasefire plan between the United States and Iran could come into effect on Monday, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin surged more than 4% over 24 hours to nearly $70,000, lifting sentiment across the broader market. The CoinDesk 20 Index and XRP (XRP) also added 4%, while ether (ETH) jumped over 5%, alongside a 3% gain for solana (SOL).
The tone is reinforced by bullish signals in the futures market, a continued decline in Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index and a 0.8% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy – the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder – has hinted at another BTC purchase. The company already holds 762,099 BTC, highlighting its dominant reserve position and long-term accumulation strategy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase its oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a symbolic effort to ease tensions in the energy market.
Together, these points to further upside potential for crypto.
But there is a caveat. Recent ceasefire headlines citing unidentified sources have proven unreliable, often debunked or outright rejected by Iran. If this trend repeats, markets could quickly reverse their trend.
Another key question is whether a ceasefire between the United States and Iran would be binding on Israel. Otherwise, the current sentiment of risk appetite could prove short-lived.
Notably, the latest ceasefire attempt is described as a last-ditch effort to prevent “massive strikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure,” President Donald Trump threatened this weekend.
Meanwhile, the oil market continues to inject inflationary pressures into the global economy. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia in May raised the price of its Arab Light crude for shipments to Asia, to a record high compared to Middle East benchmarks.
Some observers have warned that oil prices are approaching a danger zone. Oil’s 12-month rate of change is 92%. Historically, the move to 100% has coincided with stock market crashes. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- April 6 at 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
- Macro
- April 6, 9:00 a.m.: US ISM services PMI for March est. 55 (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Aave DAO votes to adjust Oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest rate models on its V2 markets to support their continued depreciation. Voting closes on April 6.
- Decentraland DAO votes to demand that the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs formally release a definition of success and contingency plan for 2030. The proposal currently has voter support. Voting closes on April 6.
- Unlocks
- April 6: Hyperliquide (HYPE) will release 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.56% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $69,805.19 (24 hours: +4.23%)
- ETH is up 4.34% at $2,154.80 (24 hours: +5.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.78% at 1,977.26 (24 hours: +4.06%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate unchanged at 2.69%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0058% (6.3400% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is down 0.11% at 99.91
- Gold futures are up 1.60% at $4,726.10
- Silver futures are up 1.00% at $73.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
- Hang Seng closed 0.70% lower at 25,116.53
- The FTSE 100 closed 0.69% higher on Thursday at 10,436.30
- The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.70% at 5,692.86
- DJIA closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 1 basis point to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,644.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 24,370.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures unchanged at 46,779.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.75
- Total fees: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,600 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 14.9 ounces
- BTC vs. gold market capitalization: 4.66%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows WTI oil price fluctuations since 1986 in the top panel. The bottom panel shows the rate of change (ROC) over 12 months.
- Historically, whenever ROC hits 100%, stock markets crash. And now the ROC is approaching this marker again.
- “Every major stock market crash since 1987 has been preceded by a signal,” Jack Prandelli, commodities market analyst and author of Substack-based Merchant’s News, said on X.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $171.46 (–0.88%), +3.80% to $177.97 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% to $8.98
- Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% to $13.18
- Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% to $16.52
- CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% to $9.08
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): Closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% at $37.12
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): close at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% to $94.05
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): close at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% at $124.67
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% to $6.47
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% at $1.01
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
