Bitcoin exceeded $70,000 following the announcement of the ceasefire in Iran, but the rally is, for the moment, quite cautious.
There may be good reasons for this.
One of the most reliable signals for gauging the direction Bitcoin may be heading comes from tracking long margin positions on Bitfinex. These positions, which reflect bullish bets financed by borrowed capital, still remain elevated at 80,057 BTC, around the highest level in more than two years, according to TradingView data.
The data suggests that these long positions are not unwinding, even though the price is more than 15% higher since its low at $60,000 two months ago. This suggests that, overall, market participants may not view the recent rally as sufficient confirmation that risks have fully abated.
Historically, Bitfinex margin long positions have functioned as a contrarian indicator. They tend to increase during periods of market stress and decrease as prices rise. For example, long positions were sharply reduced near local lows during the yen carry trade liquidation in August 2024, when bitcoin fell to $49,000, and again in April 2025 amid tariff tensions under President Trump, when bitcoin fell to $76,000.
Muted American institutional demand
At the same time, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is fluctuating between a premium and a discount, indicating a lack of consistent buying pressure from U.S. investors.
The index, which tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global market, is often used as an indicator of institutional demand.
Its undecided positioning suggests that US flows are not strongly supporting the recovery, raising questions about the sustainability of this development.
Low-key rally for crypto stocks
Underscoring caution, crypto-related stocks are all firmly in the green on Wednesday, but the gains are rather modest given how punished they have been previously.
Among the names: Coinbase (COIN) is up 1.5%, Circle (CRCL) 0.6%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) 0.6% and Strategy (MSTR) 3%.
Broader risk markets are not showing such caution: the Nasdaq is up 2.5% and the S&P 500 is up 2%.
