Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% over 24 hours but still up 6.1% over the week, as the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran that sparked Tuesday’s broad rally began to show cracks less than 48 hours after it was announced.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said three clauses of the ceasefire proposal had been violated, without specifying which ones. Israeli attacks continued in Lebanon.
And the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping lane whose reopening was supposed to be the centerpiece of the deal, remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through it despite Iran’s pledge to allow “coordinated” transit.
Brent crude rebounded 2% to around $97 after slumping more than 10% on Wednesday, its worst single-day fall in six years. This reversal reflects how quickly the market moved from a policy of peace to one of uncertainty about whether the ceasefire would hold through the weekend, let alone the full two weeks.
Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180 after leading the ceasefire rally with a 5.2% weekly gain. Solana SOL fell 3.1% to $81.96, XRP lost 3% to $1.33, and dogecoin slipped 3.4% to $0.091. BNB remained relatively stable at $600, down 2.2%.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell 0.9%, with two stocks down for every stock up, after seeing the biggest rise in a year following Wednesday’s ceasefire euphoria. The S&P 500 and European futures indicated a 0.2% decline, signaling that the four-day winning streak for global stocks was about to end. Treasuries held steady after reversing an earlier rally on concerns that rising oil prices would feed through to inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to highlight the risks of rising inflation alongside easing labor conditions, keeping the narrative of higher rates intact for longer. Wage growth in Japan has reached multi-decade highs, reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes.
The combination amounts to what one analyst described as “uncoordinated tightening” in major economies, adding to geopolitical uncertainty that prevents any stable anchoring of rate expectations.
For Bitcoin in particular, the move from $67,000 to $72,700 during the ceasefire and subsequent holding above $70,000 despite Thursday’s swing constitutes the most constructive price action since the war began six weeks ago.
The $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained every move since late February is still intact, but Bitcoin is now testing the upper half rather than moving lower.
