Sentiment in Bitcoin the market appears to have reversed after a long period, suggesting an investor is positioning for a potential rebound to $80,000.
On Deribit, which accounts for a majority share of the multibillion-dollar global crypto options market, the $80,000 call — a derivatives bet that prices will rise beyond that level — has become the most popular trade. It surpassed the $60,000 put, which dominated positioning in recent months as prices fell.
At the time of writing, open interest for the $80,000 strike stands at over $1.6 billion, with each contract representing one bitcoin, according to data from Deribit. The $60,000 put has an open stake of $1.41 billion.
BTC has already rebounded above $70,000 from an early-week low near $67,000, supported in part by a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran that weighed on oil prices. Analysts say continued weakness in oil could help ease inflation fears, strengthening the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut – a backdrop that tends to support risk assets including Bitcoin.
On-chain data offers additional supports in the bullish case.
“For only the second week in 2026, Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC saw net inflows. This indicates whale accumulation rather than ETF-driven demand. If this continues, it increases the likelihood of a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin towards the $75,000-$80,000 range,” said Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent.
Furthermore, 21Shares analysts see room for further upside, with a potential move towards $100,000 by the end of June under favorable conditions.
“Over the past month, we have seen over $1.5 billion in net inflows into BTC ETFs, as well as an increase in large investor holdings of approximately 6% year to date, indicating continued demand from more sophisticated participants,” said Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares. “If geopolitical tensions ease and regulation improves, a move towards $100,000 by the end of the second quarter cannot be ruled out.”
Yet risks remain. The ceasefire is fragile and any further escalation could send oil prices higher again, which could dampen risk appetite and cap Bitcoin’s gains.
Later today, fourth quarter US GDP data will be due. While this retrospective release may have limited immediate impact, a significant surprise in one direction or the other could still trigger short-term volatility. Stay vigilant!
What is the trend
- Trump promises to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf before negotiations with Iran (Bloomberg): As both sides accused each other of violating the truce, Trump pledged to keep U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of negotiations with Iran that are expected to shore up a fragile ceasefire.
- Everyone is waiting for US inflation figures, but Bitcoin traders don’t care (CoinDesk): The latest report on US inflation for March, expected on Friday, is considered a key indicator by several observers, given the context of the war in Iran and its inflationary impact. Yet the latest BTC market activity shows that traders don’t care.
- ‘NATO is in grave danger after Iran war,’ says former US ambassador to NATO (euronews): Former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw from NATO and other worrying clashes had created the “worst crisis” the alliance had ever faced.
- Inflation Data, Iran Talk: What to Watch for the Rest of the Week (The Wall Street Journal): After Wednesday’s big stock market rally, investors will be watching to see if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds and awaiting updates to inflation data, fourth-quarter GDP estimates and new consumer confidence data.
Signal of the day
The chart shows Bitcoin’s daily price fluctuations in candlestick form since October 2025. It also features a yellow trendline taken from the record high of over $126,000 in October which represents the brutal bear market.
At the time of writing, BTC price was trading near this trendline resistance, a decisive level.
A decisive breakout above the trendline – ideally with heavy volume and sustained follow through – would mean that the downtrend has likely altered its trajectory. This could open the door for a broader bullish trend reversal, with the possibility of moving towards the $75,000-$80,000 region initially, and potentially higher if momentum builds.
On the other hand, a rejection of the trendline would strengthen it as a valid resistance level, suggesting a continuation of the bear market. This would increase the risk of a further pullback towards recent support levels, potentially at $65,000 or lower.
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Cryptocurrency markets today . For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
