Bitcoin returned to $71,843 on Friday after a third attempt to break above $73,000 resulted in a sell-off on Thursday, a level that has now rejected the price in every rally since the Iranian conflict began in late February.
The retirement is modest. Bitcoin is up 7.9% for the week, its strongest weekly performance of the war so far, holding above the 50-day moving average that rose for the first time since the conflict began. Ether held steady at $2,189, up 6.6% for the week. Solana’s SOL gained 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin climbed 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 is green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.
But $73,000 is apparently a wall. Bitcoin’s level has been capped three times since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday – with each attempt producing a rally that faded within hours. The pattern is the same as before the ceasefire, but slightly higher. Instead of fetching between $65,000 and $73,000, bitcoin is now between $70,000 and $73,000.
“We will have to wait until the price rises above $75,000 before we can talk about a market entering an active bull phase,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in a note to CoinDesk. He added that Bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment, but flagged the repeated rejection at $73,000 as the barrier that must be breached.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, raised the bar, saying the key conditions for Bitcoin to resume its uptrend are a consolidation above $74,000 followed by a breakout above $80,000. “Crossing these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he said.
The ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s rally is already fraying. Iran has accused the United States of violating three clauses of the agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz is only partially reopened with “technical limitations”. Oil rebounded from its 15% single-day crash to return above $97.
Ether configuration is also limited to one range. The token is down 4% from its Wednesday high of $2,189, which Kuptsikevich described as market noise in a consolidation zone of $2,000 to $2,400.
“A breakout beyond this quiet consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he said.
Outside of the majors, Algorand fell 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1% and Polkadot fell 6.1%, marking an altcoin divergence that typically appears when traders rotate rather than enter new capital.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index climbed above the single digits for the first time in more than a month.
If the ceasefire persists through the weekend and the strait opens further, $73,000 will be tested for the fourth time with momentum behind it. However, if Tehran’s grievances intensify or Trump’s rhetoric changes, falling back towards $68,000 to $70,000 is the path of least resistance.
