Cryptocurrency trading has cooled in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are rushing to adjust their forecasts before companies report first-quarter results.
A new study from Barclays and Oppenheimer shows several analysts reaching similar conclusions, weeks into the second quarter. Expectations are falling across the industry as trading volumes weaken and past projections appear overly optimistic.
Barclays took the most direct action, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since late 2023.” The bank added that “in the absence of a resurgence in crypto trading activity in the near term, we see Coinbase’s profitability coming under pressure.”
The slowdown is visible in the data. Coinbase’s March trading volume marked “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” Barclays wrote, with April showing “no signs of improvement.” For the first quarter, the bank estimates that volumes fell by around 30% compared to the previous quarter.
Coinbase and other exchanges charge fees on every transaction they facilitate, meaning lower volumes will result in less revenue.
The mechanics are simple. When markets become calm again, many traders pull back. A retail user who once traded weekly during a rally may stop completely when prices flatten. Multiply this behavior across millions of accounts and trading volumes will drop quickly.
This is important because transaction fees remain the primary revenue driver for most crypto platforms. Barclays highlighted this risk, saying its forecast for Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA is about 24% lower than the Street’s, largely due to weak spot trading and retail activity.
Cryptocurrency prices declined in the first quarter, with the average price of major tokens falling sharply quarter-over-quarter. Bitcoin lost more than 22% of its value in the first quarter of this year, while Ether fell 29%.
Oppenheimer struck a similar tone but kept a more bullish stance on Coinbase. The company said it was lowering its forecast due to falling crypto prices and lower trading activity in the first quarter, driven in part by broader economic uncertainty. He also noted that current Wall Street estimates still do not fully reflect the decline in trading volumes during this period.
This discrepancy is now corrected.
Across the sector, analysts are revising their models downward to reflect a calmer market.
Oppenheimer reduced his estimate for Coinbase’s volume to $211 billion for the quarter, from $244 billion previously, and now expects total revenue of $1.48 billion, below prior forecasts and consensus.
The reset is not limited to Coinbase. Oppenheimer said Circle (CRCL) continues to expand the USDC stablecoin network, with stable market capitalization and USDC transfer volume increasing by approximately 1% and 12% quarter-over-quarter, respectively.
Crypto exchange Bullish (BLSH), owner of CoinDesk, saw “strong platform activity” linked to volatility in February, although spot volumes were still lower than expected. As a result, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH’s rating earlier this week, while Compass Point downgraded CRCL’s rating – to ‘neutral’ and ‘sell’, respectively.
Even these pockets of strength highlight a broader problem: the core business of cryptocurrency trading is slowing down.
Efforts to diversify revenue sources are underway, but it may take time to offset the slowdown. Coinbase’s efforts to become what it calls an “exchange for everything” includes derivatives, tokenized assets and new markets. Barclays was skeptical, writing that the strategy “will likely take a long time to bear fruit” and that it sees “little ‘right to win’ in new asset classes like stocks.”
Stablecoins, often seen as a more stable source of income, also face uncertainty. Barclays highlighted the ongoing debate in Washington over regulation, noting that the status of stablecoin rewards “remains in question.” At the same time, Oppenheimer sees near-term support in new use cases, saying “increased prediction market activity could support USDC growth.”
These areas nevertheless remain secondary to trading.
The broader takeaway is that analysts act preemptively. As earnings season approaches, companies are reducing their estimates now rather than risk being caught off guard by poor results later.
Coinbase releases its second quarter results on May 7 and bullish reports on April 23. Circle has not yet announced a date.
