Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach around $1 trillion by 2030, as the industry evolves from niche betting to large-scale “information markets” covering sports, crypto, politics and economics.
Volumes reached $51 billion last year and are on track to reach around $240 billion in 2026, implying compound annual growth of around 80% through the end of the decade, the report said. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording combined cumulative volumes of $60 billion since the start of the year.
“Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level expands the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets enables global liquidity, long-tail event creation, and institutional participation,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
In just a few years, prediction markets have gone from a niche corner of crypto and academic experimentation to a rapidly growing segment of global business activity.
Volumes have increased alongside major news cycles, including the 2024 US elections, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics to sporting, crypto and macroeconomic events.
The combination of a clearer US regulatory framework, improved user experience and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption, pushing the sector towards mainstream relevance.
The report attributes this growth to improved clarity in federal regulations, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level playing rules, as well as blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and the rapid creation of new event contracts.
Sports currently accounts for approximately 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective subscription rates than traditional online sports betting. But analysts expect that share to fall to around 31% by 2030, as cryptocurrency-related contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation should also increase, in particular to cover event risks.
$10.8 billion in revenue
Bernstein analysts estimate that industry revenues could increase from about $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching about $10.8 billion by 2030 at current consumption rates. Even with significant fee compression, they see multibillion-dollar revenue potential.
Distribution is emerging as a key competitive gap. The report names Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, leveraging their tens of millions of combined users.
Robinhood has already generated $350 million in annualized revenue from prediction markets and is moving towards owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered via Kalshi with nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts, the report added.
The broker has an outperform rating on Coinbase and Robinhood.
Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to profit from the prediction market boom
