Bitcoin is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.
Some observers nevertheless urge caution, stressing that prices must remain above this level until Wednesday, when the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is expected to end.
“The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market must evaluate two paths: extension and de-escalation, or further escalation and oil stress. This is why, even with strong BTC, the band can still deviate quickly. This is a major risk with a timer,” Marex analysts said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, which could send Asian and global stock markets tumbling. The question remains whether bitcoin, which remained relatively stable around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure from the broader market.
At the time of writing, no Iranian delegation had left for the negotiations in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation of the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chairman, scheduled for Tuesday, is also on analysts’ radar. Warsh has a reputation as an “inflation hawk” who opposed interest rate cuts and quantitative easing after the 2008 crash.
What he says during the session could therefore move the markets. “His remarks could act as a short-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations for policy easing,” digital asset trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Looking at the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) are up less than 2% in the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON increased by over 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up more than 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the KelpDAO hack over the weekend. This saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid takeover token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Decentralized lender Aave was hit the hardest, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, a drop of almost $10 billion since before the hack.
Aave’s native token, AAVE, is down 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest for futures linked to the token reached an all-time high of 3.59 million tokens. The increased demand for leveraged betting suggests the potential for increased volatility ahead. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows the daily price fluctuations of XRP in candlestick form. The white line represents the 100-day average price and the yellow line represents the extended bear market.
XRP remains below average and trendline even as Bitcoin market leader and ether (ETH) have surpassed these levels on their respective price charts.
Until price regains both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum remains relatively weak compared to BTC and ETH, which have already established stronger bullish structures.
