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If you’re considering betting on the NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time.
With odds of -20,000 – meaning you have to bet $200 to win a dollar – Fernando Mendoza is the big favorite. The Indiana quarterback is all but signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.
But things get more interesting from there.
“When someone is a heavy favorite, the conversation seems to shift to the No. 2 pick. And it does,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports. “It’s the most popular accessory, the most popular market at the moment.”
Feazel helps break down the most notable odds from the 2026 NFL Draft, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.
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The information age
Before we get into the No. 2 pick, it’s first worth noting how betting on the NFL Draft differs from what bookmakers typically face.
“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, referring to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is based on information. When a bet is based on information, the difficulty is deciding whether it’s a rumor or whether the bettor on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.
“When you take math out of the equation, it’s generally not very useful to us.”
Sharp bettors often commit heavily to NFL Draft odds, and they tend to do well. This is a tough event to win for sports betting.
“We’ve won at times, and we’re certainly trying to win. But we don’t expect a lot of information to come our way,” Feazel said.
Two-person battle
The No. 2 overall pick is still in flux, although it’s clearly a two-way battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.
It’s so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey were -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, the odds extend to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.
No surprise, the news affects this NFL bet.
“He was starting to look like David Bailey was going to be the No. 2 pick, so we put him among the favorites. But then we thought maybe the Jets were trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.
Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s chances continue to be volatile. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get a lot murkier.
“There might be someone you don’t even expect to be in the mix,” Feazel said.
QB or no QB
Of the many NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
This year, expectations are quite low. Almost all sports bets have an Over/Under of 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at odds of -225, while the Under 1.5 is a +175 underdog.
Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB Ty Simpson is deemed worthy of the first round.
“It’s gone up and down. And that’s what Simpson’s price tag was for being drafted in the first round,” Feazel said.
In fact, it is directly correlated. On the separate list of NFL Draft players who will be first-round picks, Simpson is -225.
There are, however, differences of opinion among punters.
“This has been a two-way street, all based on speculation about Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”
Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick — which it certainly won’t use on Simpson — and then the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. The idea is the Cards could try to move up from that No. 34 spot in the first round to draft Simpson.
But if you think Arizona holds on and Simpson advances to the second round, then there could be some betting value on less than 1.5 QBs. At +175, a $100 bet would yield a net profit of $175 ($275 total payout).
Most popular parts
Feazel said three other markets consistently attract attention in NFL Draft prop betting: players to pick in the top 5, top 10 or first round.
“Bettors are trying to find value at a higher price,” Feazel said. “One thing we’ve seen recently, with the Giants moving back into the top 10, is interest in Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.”
Tyson had hamstring issues that kept him from participating in the NFL combine and ASU’s first pro day. And previous injuries are also a concern, including a multi-ligament tear in his knee in 2022.
On Friday, however, he had a private training session that, by all accounts, went well. And the Giants are rumored to be a potential suitor, having traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in exchange for the 10th pick.
“Early on we had Tyson at +220 as a top-10 pick. Now we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the move from underdog to favorite in this market. “It should be chosen early.”
Tyson’s top 10 props are tied to the market for the number of wide receivers to go in the first round. Feazel said Caesars opened Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favorite, but those odds are now -190.
Additionally, Caesars opened the group of offensive linemen drafted in the first round at 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under – a pick ’em. However, Over 7.5 is now a substantial -280 favorite.
“A lot of people are expecting a big set of offensive linemen, picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.
