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When Korn’s “Blind” blared over the speakers at Petco Park at the top of the ninth inning, the San Diego Padres knew the game was over because Mason Miller entered the game.
The lights around the stadium flicker on and off as the music blares, moments before Miller turns off the lights for the unfortunate batters facing him.
The 27-year-old Pittsburgh native has been a different type of dominant so far this season. In 11 games, he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, recording eight saves in 11.1 innings pitched. He only allowed four baserunners to start the season, resulting in just two singles and two walks.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
What makes Miller’s scoreless start to the season even more impressive? He faced 38 batters and struck out 27, representing a strikeout percentage of 71.1%. He averages 21.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Yet even if Miller continues his video game-like start to the season, does he have a realistic chance of winning the Cy Young? Very unlikely.
The closest Padres currently have the fifth-shortest chance to win the NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.
- Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates – +260
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers – +380
- Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies – +550
- Sale Chris from Atlanta Braves – +950
- Miller – +1500
So what does Miller need to do to have a chance at winning the NL Cy Young? Something never seen before.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller celebrates with catcher Luis Campusano after defeating the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
First, let’s look back at the previous nine relievers who won the Cy Young Award.
Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974
Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977
Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979
Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981
Willie Hernández, Detroit Tigers, 1984
Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987
Mark Davis, Padres, 1989
Dennis Eckersley, for the Oakland Athletics, 1992
Éric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003
We can safely exclude Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched) and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) as comparisons because Miller won’t pitch as many innings this season. Miller is on pace to throw about 81 innings this season.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller reacts after hitting the Los Angeles Angels in the bottom of the ninth inning in Anaheim, California, April 18, 2026. (Caroline Brehman/AP Photo)
Miller’s projected 81 innings match those of the other five relievers. Fingers pitched 78 innings, Bedrosian pitched 89, Davis pitched 92.2, Eckersley pitched 80 and Gagné pitched 82.1.
Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA during his year, but Miller will have to pitch better than that to win the award. Paul Skenes, who won the 2025 NL Cy Young, was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA in 187.2 innings pitched in 32 starts.
Skenes, the favorite as of this writing, is currently 3-1 in five starts with a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings pitched. His ERA is inflated because he allowed five runs and recorded only two outs against the New York Mets on Opening Day. Since then, in four starts, he has allowed just three runs.
Let us therefore examine the Davis, Eckersley and Gagné cases in more detail.
Davis, in 62 games, had a 4-3 record, 44 saves and a 1.85 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 92.2 innings.
Eckersley, in 69 games, had a 7-1 record, 51 saves and a 1.91 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 80 innings.
Gagne, in 77 games, was 2-3 with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 82.1 innings pitched.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller reacts after pitching the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 9, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)
All of these seasons are amazing, but if they happened in 2026, they probably wouldn’t win the Cy Young. Baseball has changed too much since his victory.
The two main differences between the eras are the innings in which starting pitchers throw and the amount of elite relievers in today’s game.
In 2003, 20 pitchers threw more than 200 innings. Last season, only four pitchers threw more than 200 innings, making starting pitchers who are both a) capable of throwing 185-200 innings and b) with a high ERA and two lows, more valuable these days than they were back then.
Combine that with more relievers coming out of the bullpen firing 100+ mph fastballs with off-speed fade stuff, it makes Miller less of an outlier than he would have been 25 years ago. No reliever is as dominant as him this season, but many aren’t too far behind.
St. Louis Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien has a 0.00 ERA in 12 games with six saves in 12.1 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts.
Voters are not as inclined to dominate more today as they might have been twenty or three decades ago, when fewer people did so.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
Unfortunately for Miller, he could become another star closer who becomes a victim of a new era of baseball in Cy Young voting.
Since 2016, only two relievers have finished higher than fourth in Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles relief ace Zach Britton (4th) and Cleveland Guardians star Emmanuel Clase (3rd).
In 2016, Britton, in 69 games, was 2-1 with a 0.54 ERA with 47 saves, striking out 74 batters in 67 innings. A whopping 79% of the balls put in play against him were ground balls. Despite this, he finished fourth.
Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello won the Cy Young that season. He went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 223 innings pitched.
In 2024, Clase, in 74 games, posted a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves while striking out 66 batters in 74.1 innings.
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the Cy Young that season. He went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo finished second, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings pitched.
Bullpen dominance is no longer valued the same way in today’s game as it was back then.
Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for the Boston Red Sox last season in 67 games and finished seventh.
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San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller pitches against a Colorado Rockies batter during the ninth inning of a baseball game in San Diego, California, April 9, 2026. (Gregory Bull/AP Photo)
That’s not to say Miller can’t win the award, but he still has a long way to go.
While he’s not likely to strike out 71.1 percent of the batters he faces throughout the season, and will eventually give up some runs, he may need to strike out batters at a historic rate, while also leading the National League in saves, to keep voters’ attention throughout the season.
That’s not to say voters are blind to the bullpen’s dominant seasons over the past decade, but recent history shows that hitters might have a better chance of getting on base against Miller than Miller does of winning the Cy Young Award.
