One of the biggest stock market debuts in history will take place in six weeks, and the crypto is in the same liquidity pool it will attract interest from.
SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC earlier this month, seeking a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If the price approaches that level during its planned June listing, the offering will be more than 2.5 times Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion in 2019, making it the largest IPO in history. Polymarket traders assign a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first day’s closing market cap exceeds $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone. ChatGPT maker OpenAI is targeting a fourth-quarter listing at a valuation near $1 trillion. Anthropic is reportedly planning an October launch that could raise more than $60 billion.
If all three reach the public market on time, they will raise more than $240 billion from June through the end of the year, a figure that PitchBook says exceeds all venture-backed U.S. IPOs combined since 2000.
“After the SpaceX IPO, I think you start to have some very bearish stocks. It’s the Solana moment at $300,” said Alex Good, founder of crypto-AI project Post Fiat, during a recent interview on CounterParty TV.
“Right now, we’re in this peak supply moment, every investment bank is going to upgrade every AI stock because they’re going to get a lot of fees on these IPOs.”
Good’s framing captures the mechanical setup, where the three largest quotes could be concentrated in a six-month window, preceded by coordinated sell-side optimism from the banks handling the deals and followed by rotation.
MSCI, the company that constructs many institutional portfolios of benchmark stock indexes, modeled a scenario in February that megacap IPOs in 2026 could trigger index-driven flows measured in billions of dollars, sector rotation effects in global benchmarks and liquidity compression in everything outside of the new names.
Crypto sits in the same risky liquidity pool that funds tech and AI stocks.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and the rest of the majors have traded with a closer correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. When speculative capital leaves stocks for an IPO allocation, some of what remains is the same capital that otherwise would have driven higher beta assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The historical parallel is, however, worrying. Coinbase was listed on April 14, 2021 at the height of the latest Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of around $64,800 on the same day and began a 50% decline in six weeks.
Traders who interpreted Coinbase’s IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching traditional capital churn. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark peaks rather than starting lines, because the capital pursuing the milestone is the same capital that previously owned the asset.
SpaceX is not a crypto company, but two features on the list connect directly to crypto feeds. First, the 30% retail allocation, or approximately $22 billion of the $75 billion offering, represents three times the typical retail share of a deal of this size.
Such retail allocation to SpaceX is money that is not bidding on memecoins, altcoins, or bitcoin itself.
Second, SpaceX itself holds 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million in the custody of Coinbase Prime, making its IPO the first public market listing of a company with a significant Bitcoin position disclosed under new fair value accounting rules that took effect in late 2024.
The testable signal going forward is whether the crypto holds up during the May and June touring window or begins to decline as dispatchers free up space for the SpaceX subscription.
However, a Bitcoin rally that extends throughout the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF offering has decoupled crypto from broader risk flows.
Coinbase’s peak in April 2021 involved a company and market cap of $86 billion absorbed in a single day. SpaceX, at $75 billion, is not a full-scale Coinbase. This is a different kind of event, embedded in a market that has had five years to learn from the last one.
Whether the crypto treats the lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the tape in about six weeks.
