Bitcoin returned to $76,500 from $79,000 earlier this week, stalling recovery from late March lows below $65,000. Those expecting a quick return to form may want to note that recent economic releases do not support a significant upward move.
The biggest is the University of Michigan consumer survey, which showed the consumer confidence index fell to an all-time low of 49.8 this month, largely due to inflationary pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
Inflation expectations also rose sharply, with the one-year indicator reaching 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month. Long-term expectations (five to ten years) reached 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.
This is an excerpt from the CoinDesk “Daybook” newsletter. Register here, if you haven’t already.
Inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, which is why central banks like the Federal Reserve monitor them closely and try to anchor them. This sharp rise could therefore limit the Fed’s ability to signal interest rate cuts or liquidity easing in the short term, as further monetary easing risks reinforcing inflationary pressures. This hawkish trend could, in turn, limit the upside or slow the gains of BTC and other risk assets.
“For the Federal Reserve, the shift in long-term expectations is the most dangerous data point. It’s the variable the central bank watches most closely when assessing whether the psychology of inflation is becoming unanchored, and a one-month shift of this magnitude sets the bar for any near-term easing pivot, even if the real economy weakens at the margins,” Bitfinex analysts said.
The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate stable between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday.
At the same time, traders are also pricing in a possible rate hike from the Bank of Japan in June.
“Rate hikes this month seem unlikely, based on current market sentiment. Financial bets suggest we could see more than two rate hikes in the eurozone and the UK before the end of the year. A June hike is almost completely priced in. We now lack clear data to make good decisions, and this is the main obstacle,” Timothy Misir, head of research at the BRN, said in an email.
On the crypto-specific side, sustained ETF inflows remain crucial to maintaining support for spot BTC in the event of a decline.
Meanwhile, coordinated industry efforts to contain the fallout from the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens fare better than the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 0.5% over 24 hours, decoupling from the 1.5% drop in the CoinDesk 20. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows hourly fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin in candlestick form since the end of March.
BTC broke out of an ascending trendline (white dotted line) that had been guiding its upward trajectory since the start of the month. Additionally, prices are trading at a discount to their 50 and 200 hour averages.
This pattern indicates an exhaustion of the uptrend and the possibility of a larger price pullback. The bullish scenario would reassert itself if prices recover the two moving averages.
