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It’s decision time for many of college basketball’s biggest stars.
The deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the 2026 NBA Draft and retain their NCAA eligibility is May 27 at 11:59 p.m. ET, giving prospects who are “testing the waters” a final window to return to school after going through the pre-draft process. In the weeks leading up to that deadline, events like the NBA Draft Lottery and the NBA Combine will help shape some of the biggest picks of the offseason.
This year, 71 freshmen declared for the draft, which is a notable drop from 106 a year ago and a steady decline since 2021. This trend is a direct reflection of the new landscape of college basketball, where NIL opportunities have made returning to school a much more viable option.
With that, here are the 10 undecided players whose picks will have the biggest impact on the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.
Status: Okorie intends to stay at Stanford if he doesn’t remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Okorie was one of the best pure scorers in college basketball last season, leading the ACC with 23.2 points per game as a freshman. If he returns to college, he will look to expand his game beyond scoring and guide his team to an NCAA Tournament appearance.
The transfer portal has been relatively quiet for Stanford. The Cardinal added no players and lost just one key contributor. If Okorie returns, they would largely be taking a step back from a 20-13 season that ended in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown.
Status: Graves entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA draft.
Impact: Graves is considered a stronger NBA draft prospect than his production might suggest during the 2025-2026 college season. As a freshman at Santa Clara, he came off the bench and averaged 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but his shooting (41.3 percent from three) and size (6-foot-9) are heavily covered at the next level.
If Graves returns to college, he would likely transfer to a Power 4 program in search of a starting role and more responsibility on the ball.
Status: Thomas would return to Arkansas if he did not remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Thomas is a first-round NBA talent who averaged 15.6 points per game as a freshman, although he was often considered secondary to Darius Acuff Jr. in the Arkansas offense. If he returns, he would likely play a starring role for the Razorbacks.
Arkansas adds freshmen Abdou Toure and Jordan Smith to the backcourt, but lost DJ Wagner and Acuff, positioning Thomas as the go-to option with a young supporting cast around him. This trio could make for a smooth transition as the Razorbacks look to build on their 2026 Sweet 16 run.
Status: Tanner would return to Vanderbilt if he did not remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Tanner was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, going from 5.7 points and 1.9 assists per game to 19.5 and 5.1, respectively, as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. If he returns for his first year, he could become one of the best guards in the SEC.
Tanner has yet to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, most recently falling to No. 4 seed Nebraska in heartbreaking fashion when its half-court buzzer-beater sounded. His return would give Vanderbilt a strong backcourt, especially with the additions of Missouri transfer Barrett and Washington State transfer Ace Glass.
Status: Blackwell committed to Duke, but could still remain in the NBA draft
Impact: Blackwell was one of the best guards in the country last season, averaging 19.1 points per game as a junior at Wisconsin. He has since committed to transferring to Duke for his senior year while also testing the NBA draft waters.
If Blackwell returns to college and suits up for the Blue Devils, Duke could boast one of the most loaded backcourts in the country. Blackwell would likely start alongside Cayden Boozer, with Caleb Foster and freshman Deron Rippey Jr. providing depth off the bench.
Another year in college would give Blackwell the opportunity to further develop as an initiator, facilitator and defender, which could help him improve his NBA stock. He would also aim to help Duke make a deep NCAA tournament run after Wisconsin exits in the first round in 2026.
Rueben Chinyelu of the Florida Gators enters the paint against the Vanderbilt Commodores. (Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images)
Status: Chinyelu would return to Florida if he doesn’t remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Chinyelu’s return to Florida would significantly increase the Gators’ chances of returning to the national championship after falling short beyond the first weekend of 2026. Florida already returns forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, but neither offers the same level of defensive presence as Chinyelu.
For a Florida team ranked No. 1 in FOX Sports’ Casey Jacobsen’s post-gate Top 25, Chinyelu’s return would only solidify that projection.
Status: Johnson would return to Michigan if he did not remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Similar to Mara, Johnson would significantly boost Michigan’s chances of defending its national title in 2026. He was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, averaging 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as a sophomore, but was often only the Wolverines’ third or fourth option.
If he returns and Mara remains in the draft, Johnson could play an important role in the frontcourt. A rotation of Johnson, Thiam and Estrella would be as great as any in the country.
Status: Mara plans to return to Michigan for his senior season if he doesn’t remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Mara’s return to Michigan would put the Wolverines firmly in the national title conversation. He bolstered his NBA draft stock with an exceptional run, leading Michigan to the 2026 national championship. As the most highly touted prospect in this group, a return to college would be surprising, but if he returns, Michigan would have an even deeper frontcourt than last season.
The Wolverines added Moustapha Thiam and JP Estrella via the transfer portal and could also welcome back Morez Johnson Jr. The ability to rotate those three alongside Mara would give Michigan a potentially dominant interior presence.
Jeremy Fears Jr. of the Michigan State Spartans looks on during the first half of a game against Michigan. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Status: Fears intends to return to Michigan State for his redshirt junior season if he does not remain in the NBA draft.
Impact: Fears’ decision could make or break Michigan State’s cap. Last season, Fears was the Spartans’ only true offensive initiator. He is a reliable perimeter defender and, in many ways, an extension of head coach Tom Izzo on the court. Fears averaged 15.2 points per game and led the nation with 9.4 assists, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors.
Those aren’t easy numbers to replace, and Michigan State hasn’t added any guards through the transfer portal. If Fears remains in the NBA draft, it would leave a significant hole in the Spartans backcourt.
Status: Momcilovic entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA draft after his junior season at Iowa State.
Impact: Momcilovic could raise a team’s ceiling to that of a national title contender if he decides to return, as few players possess his unique skillset. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 16.9 points per game for the Cyclones in 2026 and led the nation in 3-point shooting at 48.8 percent.
With many top programs having already allocated the majority of their NIL budgets, the pool of teams that can reasonably afford Momcilovic could be limited. But if he decides to return to college, whatever team he lands with will immediately become a legitimate threat heading into the 2026-2027 season.
