Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 late Thursday after the United States launched new airstrikes in Iran, causing Brent crude to briefly surpass $100 a barrel before giving back some of the gains during Asian and European hours.
The crypto market was already slightly jittery after strategy chairman Michael Saylor said the company would consider selling bitcoin to cover its STRC’s dividend payments, a reversal from its previous “never sell” strategy.
Ether (ETH) is trading at $2,280 after losing 0.2% since midnight UTC and around 2% over the past 24 hours, while other altcoins like monero (XMR) and dash (DASH) are losing between 4% and 5%.
The broader crypto rally remains intact, with bitcoin rebounding from $65,000 in late March, although it should be noted that a drop below $75,000 would reverse the recent run of higher lows and signal a return to the previous trading range.
Positioning of derivative products
- The cryptocurrency futures market cooled for the second day in a row, with the sector’s cumulative notional open interest down more than 1.5% to $131.5 billion and trading volume down more than 12% to $191 billion. Investors are clearly deleveraging following bitcoin’s overnight fall below $80,000.
- Exchanges liquidated nearly $300 million in bets in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for most of the total. This shows that traders were positioned for a continued price rally over the weekend, only to take the brunt of the unexpected market weakness.
- Open interest (OI) has declined for most major tokens, including bitcoin and ether. Meme token DOGE’s OI fell more than 4%, the steepest among the top 10 coins. TON stands out, with an OI up 6%.
- For the second day in a row, the OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta for most majors remains negative, a sign that traders are shorting aggressively using market orders rather than passive limit orders.
- On Deribit, the most actively traded contract in the last 24 hours was a $105,000 BTC call option expiring on June 26. Market positioning has also changed, with the five most traded contracts now including puts at $80,000, $75,000 and strikes of $60,000. This marks a marked change from the previous three sessions, when calls dominated trading activity.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index, BVIV, remains near 40%, the lowest since late January, a sign of market calm ahead of the crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
Symbolic discussion
- Despite relative weakness in major cryptocurrencies and privacy coins, CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) has surged more than 3% since midnight UTC, supported by an 8.2% rise in ONDO’s price.
- Ondo Finance is a real-world assets (RWA) project that completed its first cross-border buyback of US Treasuries on Thursday after working with JP Morgan, Mastercard and Ripple, leading to price appreciation over the past 24 hours through Friday.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Select Index (CDMEME) lost ground on Friday, posting a 0.1% decline to make it the only CoinDesk benchmark in the red.
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator is at 42/100, significantly higher than in April when it was as low as 31/100. The total market capitalization of altcoins during this period increased from less than $1 trillion to $1.05 trillion.
