As the United States works to replenish its supply of missiles and munitions after deploying large numbers of them in the war against Iran, its defense contractors will need a supply of rare earth minerals and magnets essential to making these weapons.
But China dominates global production of these minerals and has implemented strict controls on them over the past year to exclude any foreign companies linked to the military and to exert political pressure on the Trump administration.
China deployed its control over the mineral supply chain as powerful leverage last year, cracking down on exports until the Trump administration agreed to reduce its punitive tariffs. Christopher Padilla, a former trade official in the George W. Bush administration, said the U.S. decision to burn many precision munitions in the Iran war only increased that leverage.
At least in the next few years, U.S. efforts to replenish its stocks “mean we need access to rare earth minerals from China,” he said, adding: “Every missile fired at Iran makes us that much more dependent in the short term on China and its rare earth minerals.” »
The war in Iran is expected to feature in various forms in U.S.-China talks in Beijing this week. The United States is eager to seek help from China, Iran’s strategic partner, to successfully complete its negotiations. The reduction in U.S. munitions stockpiles has raised questions about the United States’ ability to take further military action, including to defend Taiwan against any Chinese incursions.
But simply rebuilding America’s arms supply could be a more immediate issue for U.S.-China relations. Estimates from the Defense Department and Congress suggest that the United States has deployed about half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles and about 10 times the number of Tomahawk cruise missiles it currently purchases each year since the Iran war began in late February.
Rare earth minerals are integrated into nearly every advanced U.S. defense platform, experts say. An F-35 stealth fighter, for example, contains about 900 pounds of rare earth elements, while an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer — several of which patrolled the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict — contains about 5,200 pounds. These minerals are essential to its propulsion systems, radar, missile defense and other onboard electronic devices.
The Tomahawk cruise missiles that the United States used extensively during the Iran war also require rare earth minerals for their guidance systems, although they tend to use smaller quantities.
They include material like samarium-cobalt, which makes the magnets used to turn the fins of guided missiles more resistant to the heat generated by high-speed flight. Gallium is a key component of radars like those damaged by Iran in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, and neodymium is essential to military lasers.
The Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion budget request for fiscal 2027 includes billions of dollars aimed at finding new sources for dozens of critical minerals used in weapons systems and the defense industrial base.
For the Defense Department, divestment from its supply chain of Chinese materials is considered essential for projects such as the “Golden Dome,” a missile defense system intended to protect the United States from intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. The Golden Dome project would require dozens of new radars and thousands of space interceptors and sensors, experts said, requiring larger volumes of rare earth minerals and magnets.
The United States is working to find alternative sources of rare earth minerals and magnets, but those efforts may take years to develop. At the same time, export controls introduced by China in December 2024 and intensified in April 2025 are putting extreme pressure on supply chains.
Mahnaz Khan, vice president of policy for critical supply chains at Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington think tank, said the U.S. government is rapidly building more secure mineral supply chains, both domestically and with its allies. “But in a protracted conflict, America could face a growing collision between growing defense needs and mineral supply chains still heavily concentrated in China,” she said.
Chinese analysts have reached a similar conclusion. Meng Weizhan, a research assistant professor at the Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences at Fudan University, told Chinese publication “The Observer” that the main reason Trump may want to extend the current US-China mining deal is that the US military industry cannot do without Chinese rare earths.
Mr. Meng argued that if the United States wanted to seek an extension of this agreement, it would have to make concessions to China in other areas, such as tariffs or controls on semiconductors.
Lily Kuo reports contributed.
