Prediction market provider Polymarket filed an application Wednesday to list sports event contracts in the United States, according to a self-certification filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Polymarket filed a request on Wednesday to list “combinatorial outcome contracts,” describing these event contracts – the official term for prediction markets – as combining two or more underlying contracts. Additionally, all underlying contracts should be settled according to the specific user-defined outcome.
“Each outcome must be satisfied for the contract to resolve at $1.00. The contract resolves at $1.00 if and only if each branch is satisfied. If a single branch is not satisfied, the contract resolves at $0.00, regardless of the outcomes of the remaining unsettled branches,” the filing states.
Because the contract is self-certified, Polymarket is not so much requesting explicit permission to list these contracts as it is indicating to the CFTC that it intends to list these products. The document says it will list them “no earlier than May 21, 2026.”
Another exhibit was filed, but Polymarket asked the CFTC to keep that exhibit confidential due to possible trade secrets or commercial information, according to a second filing.
Exchange Traded Funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission, which does not directly oversee prediction markets, is studying what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets might look like, Chairman Paul Atkins said in a statement Wednesday.
ETFs are driving capital formation and investor choice, he said, noting that ETF assets have tripled over the past seven years.
“New products raise new questions, and I appreciate the willingness of fund sponsors to delay the effectiveness of a number of new ETFs, including event-driven ETFs, while we study the implications,” he said. “To ensure we proceed in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have directed staff to seek public input on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”
Prediction markets have faced increased scrutiny from Congress and the courts in recent months, particularly as they have expanded into sports leagues. State regulators and gambling companies argue that sports-related prediction markets infringe on states’ rights to regulate and tax gaming products, since prediction market providers are federally regulated.
The CFTC, for its part, asserts that these products are properly supervised by it under the Commodity Exchange Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is widely expected to take up the issue at some point.
Meanwhile, lawmakers are also looking into prediction markets, although it’s unclear whether a bill will be introduced to address them at this point.
Read more: Prediction Markets Firms Slammed in Senate Trade Hearing to Examine Surge
