The current state of financial markets can be described as first macrogeopolitical, then cryptographic.
The evidence is clear. Despite recent positive regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, Bitcoin showed little enthusiasm, trading near $77,200 – largely unchanged over the past 24 hours and over the week.
Meanwhile, oil remains high near $100 and hot money is flocking to copper, fearing a sulfur shortage. The connection? Copper production is heavily dependent on sulfuric acid, the supply of which has been interrupted by the Strait of Hormuz.
Essentially, it’s all about Hormuz, leading to higher commodity flows and prices, stoking inflation fears, increasing bond yields, which are expected to weigh on crypto. US stocks, meanwhile, are near record highs, buoyed by AI optimism.
Bitcoin is not at the center of this geo-economic and AI repricing.
So it’s no surprise that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, seeing $1.15 billion in outflows this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. Coinbase premium, a key indicator of U.S. demand relative to the rest of the world, hit its lowest month.
Analysts have repeatedly stressed that these indicators need to improve significantly before a sustainable recovery can take hold. The question is whether this will happen as long as markets remain obsessed with geopolitics and AI.
Meanwhile, certain segments of the crypto market, particularly on-chain perpetual tokens and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, driven by specific news and narratives, as we discussed on Thursday. The layer 1 Near Protocol (NEAR) blockchain token is the latest addition to this group, surging over 25% in the last 24 hours after announcing a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.
In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have given up early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain generally optimistic about stocks after the latest earnings season. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
HYPE’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) surged above 70. Although readings above 70 are widely referred to as “overbought,” this interpretation is often misleading.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A value above 70 simply signals strong bullish momentum and suggests that the uptrend could still continue. This does not automatically mean the asset is overvalued or on the verge of an imminent reversal, as the popular narrative often implies.
In strongly trending markets, the RSI can remain high for extended periods without triggering a significant pullback.
