ISLAMABAD:
ISLAMABAD: Only a few years ago, even a routine protest call from the opposition would have sent shockwaves through government circles. Authorities often deployed containers, imposed restrictions and closed roads well before protesters arrived, creating an atmosphere that itself reflected the strength of the opposition.
However, Friday’s call for protest by opposition parties, including the grand alliance of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) and Jamaat-e-Islami, played out very differently.
Unlike previous cases, there have been no widespread preventive measures, extraordinary restrictions or visible signs of official alarm. Ultimately, the opposition protest campaign had largely petered out without any major mobilization.
Political analysts say the decline in opposition power on the streets has been gradual, but became more pronounced after the November 26, 2024 protest in Islamabad, when PTI protesters faced a forceful state response, arrests and dispersal operations.
Since then, analysts say the party’s ability to mobilize its supporters has been weakened by legal pressure, organizational disruption and growing fear among its workers and supporters.
Attempts in the following months to revive agitational politics, including leadership reshuffles within the party’s provincial structure, have so far failed to restore the momentum the PTI once enjoyed. Analysts say the opposition’s strategy now appears fragmented and incoherent.
Political analyst Raza Rumi said the low turnout stemmed from several factors rather than a single cause. According to him, repeated cycles of protest, the fear generated by arrests, surveillance and judicial repression over the past two years, as well as organizational tensions within the opposition ranks, have collectively undermined street mobilization.
He added that many supporters still sympathized with the opposition’s rhetoric, but remained reluctant to physically participate because of the political and legal costs it would entail.
“Historically, street politics in Pakistan depends not only on public anger, but also on organizational coherence, local networks and confidence in the ability of mobilization to produce tangible political results,” he said.
Referring specifically to the PTI, Rumi noted that the party had once demonstrated an unrivaled ability to quickly mobilize crowds, often prompting preemptive state action before protests even materialized.
However, he said the crackdown on the PTI’s leadership, workers and organizational structure after May 2023 had significantly reduced its ability to organize open mobilization on the scale seen before.
“At the same time, the state may believe that the PTI’s ability to disrupt street power has diminished, thereby reducing the urgency for aggressive preventative measures,” he said.
He added that the party’s main challenge now was whether it could transform its electoral and numerical support into a sustainable political structure on the ground under current conditions.
Senior political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi said the result was not surprising. He remarked, “It’s not surprising that people aren’t going out,” pointing to two main reasons: economic pressure and fear of the state.
According to Rizvi, worsening financial difficulties have made it difficult for ordinary citizens, especially daily wage earners, to participate in the protests because “if they don’t work, they can’t earn money.”
He further observed that “the state has become very strict”, explaining that while bail in political cases used to come within days, “it takes months” now, sparking fear among people about the consequences for themselves and their families.
According to him, “there is a feeling of insecurity, disappointment and fear of the state, which makes it difficult for the public to come out.”
Rizvi also noted that earlier arrests generally fell under ordinary legal provisions where bail was relatively easier, while stricter laws are now increasingly being invoked, making “pre-trial detention easier and bail difficult”, something people are well aware of before joining the protests.
Despite the weak mobilization of the street, he nevertheless maintained that the opposition’s support could still be translated electorally, adding that “people will show up in the elections”.
Separately, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency, said that “traditionally, no street agitation has been successful in Pakistan unless intelligence agencies covertly support such agitation.”
He also argued that “any such agitation must be led by credible and trustworthy leaders, which is currently not the case.”
Mehboob argued that the government had managed economic pressures relatively well, saying that although inflation continues to harm citizens, it is often explained to the public as the result of “international factors”.
He further asserted that “popular support for the federal government and the armed forces has increased” following recent developments, including what he described as a “decisive victory over India” and Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts to facilitate dialogue between Iran and the United States, which he said “gave people a feeling of positivity.”
He added that “decisive and timely use of force against PTI protesters, arrests and long periods behind bars are some of the factors working against the agitation.”
He said the opposition’s warnings and statements by leaders such as Mahmood Khan Achakzai were “merely political acts aimed at remaining relevant and demonstrating political activity.”
