New NBA lottery system removes worst teams from top draft odds, but can reward calculated mediocrity

The NBA Board of Governors on Thursday approved a plan to radically reshape the draft lottery in hopes of combating the league’s tanking problem.

Teams don’t intentionally lose because they enjoy being bad. They do it because the system rewards it. The question is whether the NBA’s latest overhaul actually solves the problem.

With a deciding vote of 29-1 and the Memphis Grizzlies casting the lone dissenting vote, the league approved its new 3-2-1 lottery structure.

The revamped system expands the lottery field to 16 teams and deprives the league’s three worst teams of the most favorable draft odds.

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After years of criticism of tanking, Commissioner Adam Silver presented his most aggressive effort yet to discourage franchises from hitting rock bottom.

Under the new format, the NBA will significantly reduce the odds of being voted No. 1 for the three worst teams in the league.

Meanwhile, teams finishing fourth to tenth worst will benefit from improved odds.

Under the revised structure, the ninth and tenth worst teams will have the same 5.4% chance of being at the top of the overall standings as the NBA’s true bottom players.

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Additional safeguards also prevent franchises from winning the top pick in consecutive seasons or placing among the top five selections in three consecutive drafts.

On paper, the changes appear to strengthen competitive integrity. In reality, they could simply reorient incentives.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver announces the start of the first round of the NBA draft in New York on June 25, 2025. (Adam Faim/AP)

Instead of rewarding the worst teams in the league, the new system heavily favors franchises finishing in the middle of the lottery standings.

The 3-2-1 model discourages large-scale takedowns, but creates a new incentive for teams stuck near the line of play. A larger group of mediocre teams now has reason to engineer late-season slides. The focus shifts from racing to the bottom to quietly drifting out of the playoff picture and toward a better position in the lottery.

Teams closing in on the playoff bubble will quickly recognize that moving from the eighth to ninth seed could significantly improve their chances of landing a franchise-changing player.

The Play-in tournament only complicates the calculations.

Under the new rules, the loser of the opening matchup between the seventh and eighth seeds receives lottery eligibility and a 2.7 percent chance of landing the top pick, while the winner locks himself into a late first-round selection.

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This remains the main flaw in the NBA’s approach to tanking.

The league continues to try to regulate behavior without considering the economic reality that motivates it.

Intentional losses persist because the draft remains the NBA’s most reliable pipeline for acquiring superstars, especially for small-market franchises that rarely attract elite free agents.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks during a press conference during the Emirates NBA Cup Finals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, December 16, 2025. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)

The new format will likely eliminate some of the more egregious tank work, 15-win slates built around pre-Christmas G League call-ups, satisfying broadcast partners and fans tired of unwatchable late-season basketball.

But it could also replace low-level tanking with a league-wide jockeying match for positioning in March and April.

The race to the bottom could slow down.

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The race to the middle is probably just beginning.

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