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Forty-eight teams. One more knockout round. And a draw which, in several groups, gives the impression that FIFA was actively seeking to sow chaos. Someone is going to dig deeper into this tournament that no one saw coming.
Of course, the biggest World Cup in history will still feature powerhouses and favorites expected to win. But more competition means more potential for surprise races and new fan-favorite teams.
Here are four dark horse teams that should be on your radar for the FIFA World Cup this summer.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +3000
Chances of the group advancing: -900
Group I opponents: Iraq (June 16), Senegal (June 22), France (June 26)
Norway are returning to the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and they arrive as one of the most in-form teams in Europe. He topped a World Cup qualifying group for the Euros that included Italy and also remained undefeated during the qualifying process.
Another story is that striker Erling Haaland spent his entire career watching the World Cup on television; watch the other superstars can shine on the biggest stage. Haaland has scored a staggering 16 goals in qualifying in just eight matches played. Simple calculations show that this is an average of two goals per game. That just doesn’t happen in this sport. Norway didn’t sneak up – it bulldozed, and Haaland did it with the energy of a man who installs toy cars for fun and whose hair has its own agent.
Regardless, Group I includes France, Senegal and Iraq. Norway must finish second. Beating Senegal and taking something away from France is entirely achievable for a team that also includes Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sørloth floating around Haaland. Make it to the round of 16 and no one will want to face Norway.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +4000
Chances of the group advancing: -1000
Group K opponents: Uzbekistan (June 17), DR Congo (June 23), Portugal (June 27)
Colombia has James Rodríguez, Luis Díaz and a deep offensive pool that gives them the ability to beat anyone in the world on any given day. And his qualifying campaign confirmed it.
Group K places the team alongside Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. This is a group Colombia can absolutely win. Néstor Lorenzo has built a team that no longer depends on a moment of magic from James to break the deadlock, thanks to Díaz’s directness, a stifling midfield press and real defensive solidity making them a complete team. James still pulls the strings, but he no longer needs to carry everything.
James will turn 35 in July. He’s spent the last few years drifting from Rayo to León to Minnesota just to stay alert enough to be here. He has one of the most elegant left feet in the game, capable of a magical free kick or a surgically precise through ball. Despite his age, he can still change the game from a stationary position.
The biggest Colombian star today is Luis Díaz. After leaving Liverpool for Bayern Munich, he became one of the most feared wingers in Europe. He finished the season with 26 goals and 19 assists in all competitions. World-class numbers. Oh, and he just won the Meisterschale, or as you and I say, the Bundesliga trophy. Luis Díaz will be one of the most important players of this World Cup.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +5000
Chances of the group advancing: -1000
Group C opponents: Brazil (June 13), Scotland (June 19), Haiti (June 24)
At some point we should probably stop calling Morocco a dark horse. He reached the semi-finals of the World Cup in Qatar. He beat Spain. He beat Portugal. He did it with such a tight structure and such an organized defensive shape that elite coaches spent days trying to figure out how to break it down.
That tactical core is still largely intact – then former manager Walid Regragui resigned in March. The new coach is Mohamed Ouahbi, a former under-23 manager who most people had never heard of until three months ago. On paper, this should terrify Atlas Lions fans. In practice, the system is so deeply embedded in this team that the identity does not live in the dugout. It lives in the players. Achraf Hakimi knows his role. Youssef En-Nesyri knows his role. This group experienced a World Cup semi-final together. A change of coach does not erase this muscle memory.
Morocco opens Group C against Brazil. Not against Haiti. Not against Scotland. Against Brazil, in what is immediately one of the best matches of the group stage. Defeat or draw against the Seleção in this first match, and Morocco is set for the entire tournament.
Qatar was unlucky. This is a team that knows exactly how they win. The 2022 race has raised the bar. The manager who built this track is gone. Now we find out the actual depth of the foundations.
Odds of winning the World Cup: +6500
Chances of the group advancing: -400
Group F opponents: Netherlands (June 14), Tunisia (June 21), Sweden (June 25)
Japan beat Germany and Spain in a World Cup. These two sentences were considered impossible. It’s just about the results of the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
The pressing system built by Hajime Moriyasu is among the most disciplined in international football. The team’s pressing traps are overwhelming, their transitions are quick and their shape is almost impossible to disrupt. Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo ensure technical quality. The collective provides the method that makes their game a nightmare. Players from their roster compete at the highest level of European national football. Talent now mixes with a lot of experience.
Group F pits them against the Netherlands, Tunisia and Sweden. It’s a tricky group, but Japan could improve very well. And if so, such a compact and tactically intrepid team becomes one of the most uncomfortable draws of the round of 16. Nobody wanted to face Japan in Qatar. Nothing has changed.
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