New Chenab River projects raise fears over India’s control of flows vital to Pakistan’s food security
View of the Uri-II hydroelectric project dam on the Jhelum river flowing from Indian-administered Kashmir into Pakistan-administered Kashmir, near Uri in Baramulla district of Indian-administered Kashmir, May 7, 2025. REUTERS
In a move that sharply escalated hydropolitical tensions, India approved the controversial Rs 3,277.45 crore Dulhasti Stage-II run-of-river hydropower project with a capacity of 260 megawatts on the Chenab River in Indian-occupied Kashmir, further undermining the Indus Waters Treaty and threatening Pakistan’s downstream water security.
The project includes a 3,685 meter long diversion tunnel, a horseshoe basin, retention and pressure wells, and an underground power plant with two 130 MW units. It requires 60.3 hectares of land, including 8.27 hectares of private land of Benzwar and Palmar villages.
The Environmental Assessment Committee (EAC) of India’s Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEFCC) has cleared the Dulhasti Stage-II project, which will draw water from the existing Dulhasti Power Station (Stage I) through a separate tunnel of 3,685 m long and 8.5 m diameter, leading to the construction of a horseshoe pond for Phase II.
In addition to the basin, the project will include a holding well, a pressure well and an underground power plant equipped with two units of 130 MW each, representing a total installed capacity of 260 MW.
India’s approval of the Dulhasti Phase II hydropower project, while keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, reflects a growing trend of unilateral expansion of upstream infrastructure that undermines the principles of cooperative transboundary water governance.
The construction of additional tunnels, pond structures and flow control infrastructure on the Chenab river system raises serious concerns about India’s growing ability to manipulate downstream river flows, critical to Pakistan’s agricultural and food security.
By refusing to release hydrological data and limiting technical transparency despite repeated international requests, India is weakening trust in treaty-based mechanisms designed to ensure stability, predictability and equitable management of rivers in South Asia.
India’s continued hydropower expansion on western rivers, without sharing critical hydrological data, risks exacerbating hydropolitical tensions and increasing the vulnerability of millions of people who depend on the Indus Basin irrigation system.
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The Dulhasti Stage-II project illustrates how run-of-river infrastructure can gain strategic importance when combined with non-cooperative water policies and suspension of institutional obligations under the Indus Water Treaty.
At a time of accelerating climate stress and water scarcity, India’s manipulation of transboundary rivers reflects an increasingly irresponsible approach to regional water security and sustainable basin governance.
The growing network of upstream hydropower projects on the Chenab River improves India’s operational control over seasonal water flows, creating uncertainty for downstream crop cycles, irrigation planning and long-term agricultural resilience in Pakistan.
India’s refusal to restore full conventional cooperation while simultaneously developing strategic hydropower infrastructure raises broader concerns about the politicization of water resources and the erosion of international legal norms governing shared river systems.
