Elon Musk’s SpaceX is pricing its Friday IPO on Nasdaq later today. While the company is currently valued at around $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based price discovery and pre-IPO price prediction markets seem to think that’s too low.
This gap is evident in three markets: Onchain perpetual futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both operating on Hyperliquide, and Polymarket’s implied first day close. These all converged to a range of $1.8 trillion to $2.1 trillion, according to data source Allium.
Currently, traders at Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first day of trading above a $2 trillion valuation. A close above $3 trillion? Polymarket gives 5% chance.
In other words, the market is expecting a strong debut, but not an explosion.
For Bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a concrete test of the dominant narrative: that the offering has drained venture capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline.
If this theory is valid, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is complete and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart compares daily price movements of Bitcoin with Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.
The strong positive correlation between the two broke down in May, as the Nasdaq rebounded sharply while bitcoin fell. However, the Nasdaq has fallen this month, hinting at a potential realignment.
The key question is whether bitcoin can remain stable – having already absorbed significant losses – in the face of a potential Nasdaq sell-off. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between the two assets was particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If this dynamic persists, BTC risks slipping below $60,000.
