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If the 2026 FIFA World Cup were played not once but 100,000 times, who would lift the trophy most often?
That’s the question Sportradar asked an AI simulation engine, which ran the entire 48-team tournament across one hundred thousand universes. Sportradar is a sports technology company that provides real-time sports data and statistics to media companies, betting services and professional leagues.
The simulation results reveal the favorites, the dark horses worth supporting to progress and the performance of the host countries.
Let’s take a look:
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The 12 group winners
There were no surprises as to which teams won each of the 12 simulation groups, as all of the betting favorites had the highest probability of winning their respective groups and did so at least 40% of the time.
The 12 finalists of the group
However, there were some surprises regarding the group runners-up.
For example, in Group A, South Korea qualified for the last 11 World Cups but finished behind Czechia, a team that hasn’t competed in a World Cup in 20 years.
Likewise, in Group B, Canada, which is 0-0-6 (WDL) at the World Cup, finished ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the team that eliminated Italy from this year’s tournament.
Last eight teams
Below are the eight third-placed teams that had the highest probability of advancing to the knockout stage, based on simulations.
Three African teams are expected to be in this group, as well as two European teams, two Asian teams and one South American team.
Analyze the final
France v Spain was the most common match in the final, occurring almost 7,000 times (7%); both teams won the tournament 16% of the time.
Brazil v Spain was the second most frequent match in the final, occurring almost 5,000 times (5%); Brazil has won the tournament 10% of the time.
England v Portugal was the “least common” final match, occurring 2,494 times (2.5%).
The usual suspects have won the most tournaments, as Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina have won the title a combined 63,000 times out of 100,000 simulations.
Portugal won the tournament in 8,000 simulations, which is the highest total of any non-title team.
There were also only 5,443 simulations (5.4%) in which a team from outside Europe or South America won the tournament; Japan had the most wins by these metrics at 1,415 (1.4%).
Host countries
The United States reached the semifinal in 9,794 simulations (9.8%) and the final in 3,913 (3.9%); there were also 1,297 simulations (1.3%) in which the United States won the title.
Mexico reached the semifinal with 7,272 simulations (7.3%) and the final with 2,555 (2.6%); there were also 936 simulations (0.9%) in which Mexico won the title.
Canada reached the semi-final in 4,174 simulations (4.2%) and the final in 1,158 (1.2%); there was no simulation in which Canada won the title.
Golden Boot results
Kylian Mbappé has scored the most goals in more than 13,000 simulations (13%).
Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in second place, in 12,000 simulations (12%).
The number of goals required to win the prize should be eight; the winner scored eight goals in 26,000 simulations, while by scoring seven he came second with 22,000.
