With only about 20% of the $10.6 billion in open interest in the money (ITM) and the remaining 80% out of the money (OTM), the market has a strong imbalance that could fuel wild price swings as participants scramble to adjust their positions.
The story doesn’t end there.
Maximum pain and put-call ratio
Another factor indicating potential volatility is the high price for the June 26 expiration, which currently sits at $74,000, approximately 14% above Bitcoin’s current spot price near $65,000.
Maximum pain is the price level at which the greatest number of options contracts would expire worthless. The theory suggests that as expiration approaches, the underlying asset (in this case, bitcoin) tends to gravitate toward this maximum pain level, as market makers and traders adjust their positions.
Although this “maximum pain” effect is widely observed in traditional markets, its reliability in crypto is often debated. However, if the theory is valid, bitcoin could see a strong rebound up to $74,000 in the coming days.
At the same time, the put-to-call ratio stands at 0.87, reflecting 87,156 call contracts versus 76,241 put contracts on more than $10.6 billion of notional open interest. Although calls still slightly outnumber puts, their relatively balanced positioning highlights growing uncertainty among traders.
Open interest is heavily concentrated around two key strikes. The $60,000 put holds approximately $450 million in exposure, making it an important support level, which Bitcoin tested in early June. Meanwhile, the $80,000 call, with approximately $406 million in open interest, remains a significant obstacle to the upside.
