The success rate of a cycle-aware approach is lower than buying and holding, winning not by being right more often, but by avoiding months when bitcoin loses 20%, 30%, or 40%. These months cluster together and deviating during these months does not mean timing the market; it’s about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.
We have made public three time-stamped market calls from 2022: the October 2022 cycle bottom, the July 2023 projection of a $125,000 target, and the October 2025 bearish signal, each based on the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, verifiable, and structurally better suited to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin than the passive approach most advisors currently use.
Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisors who treat it like any other asset leave out risk-adjusted returns and expose clients to drawdowns that, in practice, end portfolios rather than resist them.
– Markus Thielen, CEO, 10x Research
Ask an expert
If blockchain technology succeeds, do investors own the right things?
For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. Increasingly, I’m not convinced that this is always true. Technology may become indispensable while value accumulates elsewhere in sequencers, applications, stablecoin issuers or liquidity layers.
