Bitcoin There are likely more downsides to come before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen’s call focuses on the recent strength of the US dollar, which has historically been a headwind for Bitcoin. This outlook has been bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly wondering whether the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a rate cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets.
Thielen doesn’t expect the slowdown to last indefinitely, however.
Three separate indicators – global liquidity trends, the macroeconomic calendar, and Bitcoin seasonal trends – all point to a potential market bottom between late August and October.
A model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to late August as the next key inflection date. Seasonal trends also suggest that September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.
