Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, says bitcoin is drifting down the pattern it has used to track it for years.
This model is the power law, which plots the entire price history of Bitcoin on a logarithmic chart demarcated by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trend line, and a lower support line that has reached all major lows since 2015.
On Timmer’s latest chart, the support line sits near $58,000, and bitcoin at around $62,700 is approaching it.
The bottom panel is where he expects buildup. It tracks the extent to which bitcoin is trading above or below the power-law trendline, and that gap has risen to minus 56%, a depth the chart refers to as the accumulation zone and which corresponds to the lows of 2018 and 2022. The 52-week reading of the bitcoin/gold ratio has fallen just as far, to around 100%.
Timmer has not yet announced any funds. He said the speculative premium that pushed bitcoin past $120,000 last year has largely disappeared, global money supply growth is slowing and he sees no catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns.
