Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) has produced a classic Strerstep bull race, characterized by additional price increases followed by consolidation periods that have prepared the ground for the following movement.
Consolidation of the current price of the cryptocurrency between $ 90,000 and $ 100,000 is the third of the bull of $ 20,000. The consensus is that it will end with a bull break, just like those of mid-2014 and 2023.
However, the following three developments suggest the opposite.
Tighten the liquidity of the USD
If there is one thing that any asset class, not only the crypto, generally does not like, it is the tightening of Fiat liquidity, in particular the global reserve currency, the US dollar (USD). At the great dismay of BTC bulls, the liquidity of the dollar is tightening due to several factors, while Arthur Hayes, director of investments at Maelstrom, noted it on X.
In particular, the USD cash balance held in the General Treasury Account (TGA), the US government’s current account at the Fed, increased from $ 623 billion to four weeks, according to the macromicro data source.
After the United States reached its self-imposed debt limit of 36 billions of dollars last month, the markets hoped that the Treasury would descend the TGA balance in the context of extraordinary measures to operate the government, improving inadvertently liquidity in the economy and markets. This is what the Treasury did during the previous question of the debt ceiling at the beginning of 2023, stimulating an increase in risks on the equity and cryptographic markets.
“We are examining a scenario where the main sources of liquidity dry out or are more closely controlled. Lian, opinion leader and expert in intergovernmental blockchain, said on X.
Trump administration to “assess” the BTC strategic reserve
Since President Donald Trump took office on January 20, he actively followed various campaign promises related to prices, illegal migrants and international affairs.
However, there is a notable exception: the establishment of a BTC strategic reserve. It was an important catalyst behind the BTC climb from $ 70,000 to more than $ 100,000.
The Trump administration seems to be more cautious, choosing to “assess” the feasibility of creating such a reserve. This is a disappointing change for cryptographic investors anticipate rapid action on this initiative, similar to Trump’s rapid answers on other questions.
“Wait, Trump said he would make a BTC $ reserve, would not promise to” assess it “. Eviving / studying is what Washington does when they do not want to do something,” said Jim Bianco, President And Macro-StraTège at Bianco Research, LLC.
The BTC has gone from more than $ 100,000 to $ 96,000 during the day after the Trump cryptography Czar told CNBC that the most important point of the day for its new working group evaluated the feasibility of a bitcoin reserve.
Reappear of a 2021 garnish pattern
Finally, those who envisage technical graphics to assess the next movement could want to withdraw the relative force index of 14 weeks (RSI) on their screens.
Indeed a downward divergence of RSI contradicts higher prices, reporting a slowdown in the bullish impetus.
The RSI produced a high drop compared to its summit in December and diverging from the continuing price increase trend. It is similar to the 2021 model.
The negative configuration would be invalidated if the RSI crosses the tendency line of the fall, representing the divergence, indicating a renewed bullish momentum.
