An impetus indicator according to which the overvoltage of post-electoral prices of Bitcoin (BTC) of Présagues has now become negative, coinciding with the tariff rhetoric of President Donald Trump, who threatens to destabilize the markets. However, it is not yet necessary to panic.
This indicator is the Histogram of Divergence of Mobile Average Convergence (MacD), which is used to assess resistance and trend changes. It is calculated by subtracting the average level of Bitcoin prices in the last 26 periods (weeks in this case) of the average in the last 12 weeks.
The signal line is then calculated as an average of nine weeks of the MACD and the difference between the MACD and the signal lines is drawn in the form of a histogram.
The MacD on the weekly Bitcoin graphic crossed Zero, which represents a change in sloping momentum. Meanwhile, the higher than zero multisgments indicate an upward trend. The indicator became positive in mid-October, strengthening the case for a rally at $ 100,000, as Coindesk reported at the time.
Thus, while the latest MacD Bearish signal could alarm the bulls, in particular retail buyers which are based on technical analysis tools, the current BTC price action does not validate negative reading on the indicator.
Currently, BTC remains confined in the larger range from $ 90,000 to $ 100,000, with recent movements tightening between $ 95,000 and $ 100,000. Trading without direction decreases the meaning of the lowered crossroads of the MacD.
It is essential to remember that the indicators come from price action, not the other way around. MacD signals must be confirmed by price action. The bruise signal of the indicator in mid-October was supported by prices coming out of a trading range of several months.
Price threat and increase inflation expectations
Although the MacD is not yet a source of concern, several macro-factors deserve attention as potential sources of downward volatility that could see the cryptocurrency test long-standing support almost $ 90,000. A break below which would validate the fresh negative reading on the MacD, confirming a change in sliding momentum.
At the top of the list is Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which, if it translates into action, could lead to higher bond yields and lower risk assets.
Trump said that on Monday, he would announce prices of 25% on all steel and aluminum imports, which would come in addition to additional metal tasks, to be disclosed later this week. According to UBS, Trump suggested that Trump alluded to plans aimed at applying higher prices on a wide range of goods imported from the European Union.
The consumer feelings of consumers at the University of Michigan published on Friday has shown that the pricing threat already has a negative impact on consumer expectations concerning price pressure in the economy. The expectations of inflation for the coming year increased to 4.3% in February, against 3.3% in January, the highest reading since November 2023.
This could prevent the Fed from quickly reducing rates. “Inflation exchanges at 2 years have started to assess a certain risk premium around prices. At 2.72%, they reached new heights. The market interprets the Fed to be about a long break: Growth is well, and the idea even if inflation falls to 2%, the Fed does not need to be pressed to cut, “said X. Alfonso Peccatielo, the author of Macro Compass, on X.
US CPI data, or the consumer price index report for January, should be published on February 12.
