The fourth quarter was good for Crypto and Wall Street analysts expects the first American Coinbase (Coin) exchange to have a big leap in the profits from the previous three months.
Fourth quarter income should be $ 1.8 billion, according to FactstSet, against $ 1.26 billion in the third quarter. Part profit would have increased to $ 1.99 against $ 0.41.
Perhaps even more important, thanks to the major rally through the crypto after the victory of the presidential elections of Donald Trump, analysts expect the volume of exchanges to be increased to 195.9 billion dollars in the last three months of the year, against $ 185.3 billion in the third quarter. This figure of 195.9 billion dollars would be the strongest quarterly result since the fourth quarter of 2021.
“We maintain our upward thesis on the play, seeing the company well placed for the benefit of the crypto begins a potential transition to a new era,” wrote Citi Bank analysts in a note.
The bank has a purchase rating on action and this week increased its price target to $ 350, compared to $ 275. Tuesday’s shares are negotiated at $ 270, in advance by almost 90% compared to the previous year. The Citi team, however, expects Coinbase to declare a turnover in the fourth quarter of $ 1.7 billion, missing the consensus of $ 1.8 billion.
The November elections were a “monumental catalyst for the cryptography ecosystem”, wrote Ken Worthington of Jpmorgan, which remains neutral on actions. He sees a turnover in the fourth quarter at $ 1.77 billion, also a lack of $ 1.8 billion.
Perspectives on 2025
While the last months of 2024 have had many crypto catalysts and therefore of Coinbase, 2025 is difficult to predict, because the changes in policy generally take some time to enter into force, say certain analysts of Wall Street.
“For [2025]We assume that static cryptography prices and more normalized volumes are more standardized, which has led to growth in annual shift transactions compared to 3% consensus, “said Citi.
“A bit like in the past, we expect the action to remain a” risk “game throughout 2025 and will probably remain volatile around macro developments and oscillations in the feeling of the market,” continued Citi . “That being said, we are waiting for the next 1-2 years to be very formative for the Coinbase’s commercial business / competitive strategy, as well as for the largest digital active space.”
One of the main priorities in Coinbase in the past year has been to diversify its source of income, 50% of which still come from negotiation costs. Retail traders, who pay the highest negotiation costs, have still not returned to the same levels observed in 2021, according to the Kaiko research cabinet. The share of the volume from this clientele decreased at only 18%, compared to 40% in 2021, which continues to weigh the income from transactions, said Kaiko.
According to Citi, Coinbase could solve this problem in 2025 by relying further in the tokenization of assets, integrated intelligent contract applications and web3, the potential efficiency of cross -border and transmission, as well as using blockchain as a tool for AI governance, between the other two.
“In our opinion, the next evolution of Coinbase’s growth trajectory will be based on utility … An area with many proofs of concepts, but perhaps while waiting to be unlocked with clearer rules” , have written the bank’s analysts.
