Warning: The analyst who wrote this piece has shares of strategy (MSTR)
The strategy (MSTR) could be on the right track for a potential inclusion of S&P 500 by June 20.
Currently, the company meets all the conditions of eligibility, except one: make a positive net income over the 12 months of the end (the last four quarters combined). To be eligible, the benefits of the first quarter of 2025 must be high enough to compensate for the losses of the previous three quarters – an objective that could be achieved thanks to the accounting rule for digital assets of adoption (now compulsory) of the rule of CONTRACTING OF DIGITAL ACTIVE OF SUPPORTS OF COMPAINCTED CONCERMENTS (FASB).
The change of Rule Fasb obliges companies to recognize the assets of Bitcoin (BTC) at fair value, which means that price gains will pass towards net profit (just like the drop in prices). Before this rule, corporate digital asset holders had to take into account assets at their lowest levels. The strategy, for example, in the fourth quarter of 2024, has always evaluated its bitcoin at less than $ 16,000 per token, resulting in a loss of impairment of $ 1 billion while Bitcoin closed the year at around $ 94,000.
Holy grail
According to an analysis by Richard Hass on X, assuming that Strategy Holdings does not change by March 31, Bitcoin must close the first quarter above $ 96,337 for the company to meet the requirement of positive profit 12 months. “Based on the profits of the fourth quarter of 2024 – 671 million dollars in net profit MSR require $ 1.113 billion in the profits of the first quarter of 2025 to produce positive income in the previous four quarters and become eligible for S&P 500”, -Als written. “Based on the current MSTR treasure of 478,740 BTC., The required BTC price of March 31 to achieve it is $ 96,337”.
If the Bitcoin prices remain strong and the MSTR continues to accumulate tokens, the inclusion S&P 500 is at hand. The said reference analyst Mark Palmer:
“The adoption by the MSTR of the modified directives of the FASB is reinforcing its case for the inclusion S&P 500. Given its outperformance of each constituent of the current index over four years, the exclusion would be surprising. »»
“Although membership in NASDAQ-100 has been significant, the S&P 500 is the Holy Grail,” continued Palmer. ” The inclusion would validate its Bitcoin strategy, because all the indexes of S&P 500 would hold MSTR shares, indirectly exposing investors to Bitcoin. »»
Non-liability clause: Richard Hass’s original post was made before the last purchase of Strategment Bitcoin. Coindesk contacted an updated analysis, including the acquisition of Monday.
